Australia v India tests

1st test tonight , Melbourne, 11:30pm UK time
One of the main days in world cricket. Been thinking about this for a few days & every argument I give & get close to making a decision & taking a position, I quickly come up with a counter argument.
Best way of approaching this is as bullet points, I think:

Aussies have tried to be pro-active, naming their 11 in advance. Their first 3, Warner, Cowan & Marsh, is one of the most inexperienced to have taken to the turf. they're followed by the famous 3 of Clarke, Ponting & Hussey. I would suggest that if any of the 6 have a poor series, only Clarke is certain to start the next one, and that must play on minds.
The home side have tried to use all their cards as strongly as they can. Due to late start of the series, this is the 1st test as obviously all the boxing day tests are at the MCG. I'm not sure that whether its the 1st or not is relevant, but the MCG is very much australia's home.
Australia have won the last 4 tests at Melbourne against India, all boxing day tests, all by a large margin. Indeed,India's record recently in the 1st tests of series is pretty crap, but generally they improve. Their record has been tainted somewhat by the fact that England simply kept coming at them & hammered them 4 nil.
Weathers not great. There's been storms around & although rain isn't expected to affect play much, preparation has been affected. Aussies have only picked 4 bowlers, & have recalled hilfenhaus. Hilf is very much the English conditions bowler of the Aussie squad, & leads to the assumption that there'll be something in the wicket. Backing this up is that Lyon is pretty inexperienced as the spinner, & India play spin well.
India are naming their team as late as possible, but its probably quite predictable. the battings set in stone, & is imposing, but you have to bear in mind that the batting superstars havent changed for a while yet theyve only won 2 tests in Australia in recent times, so the question is have the Aussies slipped that far? Indias bowling, in Ishant & Zaheer, is strong, but theyve both got injury worries. There's no Harbhajan to back them up, & although ashwin is accurate hes not got the aura or the magic. if either of the 2 quicks break down then its going to be a long test for India.
India shouldnt have the same intimidation problems with the MCG that other teams have as they play at Eden Gardens, but the stadiums effect shouldnt be underestimated.
There's not many draws in these games, & the likely nature of the pitch reaffirms that.
Crux of the matter:
Aussies have only picked 4 bowlers, but still have a tail with Siddle @ 8. Their batting is circumspect against the moving ball & has been for a while. Therefore IMO, although obviously they're backable in play at bigger odds, they're unbackable as just over evens favourites pre-match.
So it remains just to decide whether India are backable @ 3/1? I like the price, & would certainly rather be on them than the hosts, but 20 wickets is heavily reliant on the 2 quicks, both of whom have injury doubts, & if you take that into account, together with Indias poor record in 1st tests, there's a lot of doubts.
I think its best to play this in running, possibly taking the bowling side at the toss. I dont see a lot of runs in the test but both sides bowling is fragile.
Watch & see, but i think this will be a topsy turvy series & a traders delight. there's money to be made.

Not that I've backed it yet, but I'd fancy 1-1 as a series score. the other market that might be worth a look, though I'm not a massive fan of it, is whether Tendulkar will get his 100th ton in this series. by the sound of the MCG pitch, its unlikely here, but out of his 6 tons in Australia, either 3 or 4, big ones at that, were at sydnet, the 2nd test, you can get just under 3/1 on that

Bit of rain around. India bowling after losing the toss. Started a bit short pitched but tidied up to reduce the Aussies to 68-2 at lunch, lookig to come back out shortly.
Bit in the pitch but think it will be a decent deck after the 1st day, whereas the moisture under the covers will help India again.

Lay Aussies 300 runs @ 1.32 to win 10pnts
Back India @ 4.6 - 7pnts

Aussies 146-2

Lay 350 runs @ 1.2 to win 10pnts
Back India @ 8.3 - 3pnts

Australia closed 277-6, although theyve put on 70 odd for the 7th wicket, so if I hadnt drifted off I'd have been well happy with my lays of 300 & 350.
Considering I keep saying the Aussies have a long tail with Siddle @ 8, the bastard keeps scoring runs A quick wicket now though & I havent given up on 300, certainly not 350. If they get there they'll be happy, but I think India will be the happiest of the 2 teams, as theyve recovered from staring @ 150-2 to have a good chance of being batting by lunch & using the wicket at its best over the next 2 days,
Very happy with my bets, & I'll have a silly one just in case of a quick collapse as the balls new.

Lay australia 300 @ 1.07 to win 20pnts
Back India @ 4.1 - 2.5pnts

C'mon India

Worth keeping an eye on the other test going on as well, restarting @ 8am. sri Lanka got dicked in the 1st test, but have put up a better show this time, coming close to 300 with 3 wickets left. The Durban wicket is uncharacteristically slow & a bit dead, very Asian, & I wonder if they can get up to 350, South Africa might score quite slowly. Bearing in mind Sri Lanka have only escaped defeat in 1 test in this country in something like 10 attempts, I'm not sure I'd like to be on SA at their starting price of around 1.47.
1.8 at the moment, if that shortens I might consider a lay

286-7 Haddin gone......ooh, reviewing

Yup gone.
Layed Aussie 300 again @ 1.07 to win a further 10pnts.

Unlikely but thats why its 1.07 India started well

Bets running, Siddle gone, 291-8. Even if they get the 9 runs theyre unlikely to get the 350 so all losses on 300 will be covered plus profit

Hilfenhaus hits his 1st ball for 4

311-8, this 350 might not be as clear cut as I thought

If theres one thing worse than potentially watching your money disappear down the tubes, its it happening whilst every other cunts in bed

Can't help stop your money going down the toilet, Swoop, but if it helps on the second point, I'm not in bed yet. Although I'm on my way now

Good luck.

333 all out, small profit but it all counts

India 375+ @ 2.5 6pnts
India win @ 3.75 3pnts

I think India can get 100+ ahead here, putting Australia under the cosh going into day 4

15 minutes till lunch though, tricky

Gambhir top Indian runscorer @ 6.8 - 2pnts

Be tough but feel he's due

Gambhir blew out
India in control, Dravid & Tendulkar both have 50's, 175-2. Tendulkar is batting like a god, that ton could be coming

India closed 220-odd-3, Tendulkar gone for 73. They're in a strong position & are rightly favourites.

Durbans gone well strange. Lanka held on till just before lunch, scoring 338, a decent effort. Safrica have collapsed. Smith, Kallis & Rudolph all gone, 40-3. Now its only the 2 teams records that have kept the odds afloat, but a team that are 300 ahead & have the oppo's main men in the shed should not be 4/1 !! Big shout on De villiers just & once he & amla are split I'd suggest the odds will nosedive. Cant resist.

Sri Lanka @ 4.0 10pnts

South Africa are in desperate trouble, captain losing his job type of desperate trouble the tails in, 119-7. They havent even got clear of the follow on target yet! Rain forecast tomorrow but this is only day 2 remember. You can still get evens on them, unreal, SA would be 1.2 territory the other way round

119-8. I repeat that Lanka have only ever drawn 1 test in SA due to 100 overs being lost to rain, yet alone ever coming close to winning a test. This will be bigger than New Zealand beating Australia the other week if it happens

Dravid gone straight up 214-4

India slight favourites @ 2.8, Aussies & the draw both 3.0