1. Hi and welcome to Betnod. If you would like to view the forum without adverts then please register.

BettingArea - personal sports betting service

Discussion in 'Betting Talk' started by BettingArea, Oct 8, 2011.

  1. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    9,807
    I feel an LMC ODM moment coming on.
  2. fc basher

    fc basher Member

    Messages:
    251
    We'll see what happens in future games for both,if Warta are under performing and Kolejarz are over performing away from home.
  3. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,375
    So if you win, it's by your genius and if the bookies win it's because of luck? Now where have I heard that before?

    I really can't catch my breath.
  4. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,375
    Mmmmm, I like that idea. Spain have won 7 out of 7 of their Euro qualifiers and, assuming they "should statistically lose soon" we should all be piling on Scotland at about 16/1 on Tuesday.

    Don't forget you heard it here first folks.
  5. BettingArea

    BettingArea Member

    Messages:
    120
    First off all, thank you for your opinion:)
    You understood wrong my words, it happened only in this match, not always as you wrote, I watched this match in "Live Commentary" and thanks that I can put my opinion about it. I can tell you that Kolejarz's win was unfair because Warta has a lot of easy situations for at least 1 goal but one day you can score almost everything and one day you can try but miss and miss.

    About your second post... yes, we call it "propability", you can't win all the time. With every next win your chances to extend you run are lower and lower.
  6. BettingArea

    BettingArea Member

    Messages:
    120
    Of course I'm not a genius, nobody is... I played football and I know how is to be a player. Teams lose because of form, the style of playing/tactics and luck. In Warta - Kolejarz match was bad luck but another time it could be my bad feelings and finally - prediction which I didn't expect.
  7. fc basher

    fc basher Member

    Messages:
    251
    David you say your an ex footballer,whats your surname?
  8. BettingArea

    BettingArea Member

    Messages:
    120
    I don't want to put it anywhere, my career wasn't good because of injuries, financial problems in my former clubs etc...
  9. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    9,807
    Batty springs to mind for more than one reason.
  10. BettingArea

    BettingArea Member

    Messages:
    120
    OK, let's back to my picks...

    London City 2-1 TFC Academy +10,55units
    London showed great performance and thanked their supporters for a whole season. It was their best position in the last 5 years in Canadian Soccer League.
    fc basher likes this.
  11. fc basher

    fc basher Member

    Messages:
    251
    Good stuff,David clap

    Is it "Batty" in the west indian terminology you meant slick?
  12. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    9,807
    I never thought of that , thats even more reasons than i oiginally intended.

    to be fair Batty was used here 'up North' for a different meaning well b4 the windies nicked it.
    for instance, Yorkies fcuking Batty.
  13. fc basher

    fc basher Member

    Messages:
    251
    Yorkie is Batty, got yeah
  14. BettingArea

    BettingArea Member

    Messages:
    120
    York Region Shooters 1-0 SC Toronto +6units
    Another win from Canada.
  15. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,490
    Well done BA :)
  16. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    Re the coments by BA and Onedunme on the spain scotland game,the interesting/ironical thing is that if you if you beleive that there are a significant no of people who agree with BAs"logic",then you should bet on spain as their price is the more likely to be value(due to the weight of BA thinkers money going on scotland),and if you beleive that the overwhelming majority agree with Onedunme that a record of 7 from 7 should not be bet against,then you should bet on scotland as their price would be the more likely to be value.
    Alternatively,if you are confused bet on 1-1:unsure
  17. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,375
    So if I toss a coin and it lands on heads ten times in a row, is it
    is more likely to land on tails the next time I toss it?
  18. BettingArea

    BettingArea Member

    Messages:
    120
    @ONEDUMME, I didn't invent that, it's probability theory so you should agree with that.

    Let's see... we have match between Spain - Scotland, let's give for both teams equal chances, so
    Spain 1/3
    Draw 1/3
    Scotland 1/3
    And Spain won... then > we have the second match and this time chances for Spain are 1/9. With every Spain's win and every round their chances are lower. It's simple. It's the only math. I can't disagree with that.

    Did you play in european roulette in casino ? In every round the chances for example - on red color are lower.
  19. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,171
  20. rcgills

    rcgills Moderator

    Messages:
    3,495
    Now I'll quite freely admit to not knowing a thing about probability theory, so what I'm about to say could be a load of rubbish (according to that theory, although it makes more sense to me than that theory), but here goes:

    Isn't the possibility of any combination of results in two successive matches (i.e. according to your example, Spain/Spain, Spain/Draw, Spain/Scotland, Draw/Spain, etc.) 1/9? OK, so if Spain win the first match, as you say, the chances of them winning the 2nd match would be 1/9. However, the chances of it being a draw would also be 1/9, and so would the chances of a Scotland win. The only reason a second successive Spain win would have a 1/9 chance is because you've already done a large part of the "hard" work in getting the first 1/3 chance right.

    For a coin toss, it doesn't matter that you've spun heads 5 times in a row, the chances of the 6th toss being heads are still 1/2. The chances of spinning 6 heads in a row may be 1/64 (I think :thinking), but so are the odds of spinning 5 heads followed by a tail (or 4 heads followed by 2 tails, or alternately spinning heads and tails 3 times each, etc.).

    You're right that a certain sequence can't continue forever, it presumably has to change eventually - however, there's no way of knowing when, and you could lose a hell of a lot of money in the mean time waiting for that change to occur.

    And in any case, surely all of the above only applies to an event which is consistently the same time after time i.e. tossing a coin, spinning a roulette wheel, etc.? In a football match there are so many variables (opponents, injuries/suspensions, weather conditions, etc. etc.) to take into account as well that go far beyond questions of probability.
William Hill In-Play Betting

Share This Page