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Corners & bookings

Discussion in 'World Cup 2014 Betting' started by Seen, Jun 18, 2014.

  1. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    I've been keeping a note of the corners and bookings from each game, quite interesting that both are below what was probably expected pre-tournament.

    Teams in green are winners of that game, teams in red indicate a sending off (red card counts as 2).

    w cup.jpg

    Only 2 games (of 17) have had more than 12 corners, and 6 of the last 8 have had 9 or less (you can usually back 9 or less corners at around 1.9 - 2.0 on BF on most games) and I've noticed a slow start in most games, quite often getting to 20 mins + before the first corner, so trading opportunity. I've had a fair bit of success so far betting on the corner markets in-running, liquidity is crap but with patience you can get matched at value odds.

    It's interesting that winners of the game are actually more likely to lose the corner count (due to the losing team needing to attack more - no game more evident than the Spain v Holland match where Holland scored 5 yet only won one corner), of the 14 winning teams so far only 6 won more corners, 7 won less and there was one draw.

    I'm not to keen on the bookings markets as these can be ruined in an instant with a brawl or a couple of bad tackles, but only twice has there been more than 4 cards in the 17 games and you can usually lay 45pts or over (10pts a card) on BF at between 2.2 - 2.6. 25pts and under can be backed between 4.0 and 5.5 depending on teams, yet 7 of the 17 games (41%) have had 20pts or less, so 6/4 would be the true odds - small sample size though, also you would expect more cards as the finals go on with more at stake, so I'd be less confident of this trend continuing.
  2. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    9,869
    Same old story Seen, I look at the booking spreads before the games, think that it's way, way too high but just haven't got the balls to go low. Mainly because, as you say, one spat and your money is down the pan. The bookies are well aware of that psychology which is why they price up high.
  3. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,268
    The 3 games yesterday had 20, 30 and 30 booking points last night, so a profit would have been gained from either backing under 25 or laying over 45. Couldn't use large stakes for the reasons we've discussed but it does seem that the referees have been told to be a bit more lenient this time. Even in last night's game the sending off looked to be the only card until a Croatia player got a yellow right near the end. I'll be backing under 25pts with a saver on 30-40 to return stakes on today's games and see how it goes.

    Yesterday's corners were 5, 8 and 11 and in the Spain v Chile (8) game it was heading for the lowest total yet (just 2 corners after 80 mins) until Spain got 6 in the last 10 mins. Again, backing 9 corners or under proved profitable.

    w cup.jpg
  4. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,268
    Actually, looking at the first round games, I think I'll keep corner stakes to a minimum. The 6 teams playing today won 35 corners between them first time around, so an average of 5.8 per team. Yesterday's 6 teams won just 17 corners in their first round matches, an average of 2.8 per team.
  5. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,268
    w cup.jpg

    Cards
    Another profitable day for backing Under 25pts on the bookings market, with just 2 bookings in the first 2 games (got 4.8 & 5.0 on BF). The Japan v Greece game was an example of how it can go wrong with the sending off, but you're getting between 7/2 and 4/1 for an outcome which has occurred in 10 of the 23 games so far (43%).

    Of today's games, ITALY v COSTA RICA should be interesting as neither team picked up a single card in their opening game, but HONDURAS v EQUADOR might be the tricky one as HONDURAS had 3 yellows and a red in their game v France.

    Corners
    It was the correct decision to keep stakes to a minimum yesterday as the three games had 10, 13 and 12 corners. Using the previous matches as a guide worked so will use this info again. SWITZERLAND and FRANCE both won 8 corners in their opening game so certainly won't be backing 9 or under in that match but the other 4 teams playing only won 13 corners between them in their first matches, so will go for 9 or under again.

    Italy only won 2 corners in their first game v England despite winning so I'll be looking to lay them in the corners match bet at odds-on (probs around 1.5 near the off) - they're expected to win the game so if they do take the lead I can't see them winning many corners. Costa Rica won 6 in their opening match. If Italy win the first corner or two they could trade very short in-running so I'll lay them again especially if they score.

    I wouldn't want to take 1.5 about France winning their corners match bet v Switzerland either. France did win 8 in their opening game but that was against 10 men for over half the game and they had only won 2 corners at the point of the sending off (43 mins). Switzerland also won 8 corners in their opening game so look the value on this market.
  6. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,268
    ITALY v COSTA RICA

    Bookings - layed 45pts or over @ 2.62 (20 of the 23 games have been 40pts or under, so this looks huge value. Hopefully no red card).

    Corners - backed 9 or under @ 2.14

    Corners match bet - layed Italy @ 1.6 (looking to lay even shorter if they go ahead on corners, especially if they are winning the game)
  7. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,268
    All 3 bets landed....just 2 bookings (20pts), and 9 corners, with Costa Rica winning the match bet 5-4.
  8. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,268
    SWITZERLAND v FRANCE

    Bookings - layed 45pts or over @ 2.74 (21 of the 24 games have been 40pts or under).

    Corners - no bet

    Corners match bet - backed Switzerland @ 3.8 & saver Tie @ 9.2 (will also try to lay France if they go very short in-running)
  9. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,268
    2 out of 2 there, with just the one booking and Switzerland winning the corner count 5-3 :cool:

    ITALY v COSTA RICA

    Bookings - layed 45pts or over @ 2.62 WON
    Corners - backed 9 or under @ 2.14 WON
    Corners match bet - layed Italy @ 1.6 WON
    SWITZERLAND v FRANCE
    Bookings - layed 45pts or over @ 2.74 WON
    Corners match bet - backed Switzerland @ 3.8 & saver Tie @ 9.2 WON
  10. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,268
    HONDURAS v ECUADOR
    Bookings - backed 25pts and under @ 8.8 (wasn't going to have a bet on this market due to Honduras's display in their opening game, but can't resist a bet at 8.8 - there have been 2 cards or less shown in 5 of the last 6 games. I'll try and trade this early so hopefully a peaceful start to the game)

    Corners - backed 9 or under @ 2.02 (total games so far have averaged 9 corners so borderline but Honduras are so far the only team to have failed to win a single corner

    Corners match bet - no bet (Ecuador probably look a little short at 1.4 but not enough for a bet)
  11. slick

    slick Administrator

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    10,391
    Nice one Seen in the earlier games, I mentioned there was value in the corners market donkeys yrs ago but would they listen:cry

    Seriously well done and good luck tonight.
  12. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,833
    Well done Seen, good going, you've obviously looked at this closely.

    I'm particularly interested in the the bookings count, is it likely to go higher at a certain point in the competition? I'm guessing so? How does the yellow card 2 bookings rule work? Could that affect it? Have you got thoughts of going higher at a certain round?
  13. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,268
    Yeah, I touched on this earlier in the thread with ODM. Logically you would expect the card count to increase as the competition hots up. Will monitor it day by day, although I'm off on me hols on Tues for a week.

    On Betfair, a yellow is 10pts, a 2nd yellow is a further 25pts and a straight red is 25pts.

    Small stakes only for obvious reasons, but backing under 25pts (or laying 45pts and over) is proving profitable.

    The corner totals are a bit too borderline really, although if you don't mind laying at bigger odds, the stats say you should lay 13 corners or more each game.

    The corners match bet market is my fav, simply because it quite often is won by the underdogs and/or losing team. Fluctuates wildly in-play too.
  14. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    Both bets down already before the hour is up - not too surprised, always going to be a risk with Honduras playing.

    Honduras now have another record to add to being the only team not to win a corner in a game - they've become the first team to concede 10 corners in one game....and there's still 30 mins to go!!! :giveupFucking hopeless. I know what bet I'll be lumping on when they play Switzerland on the 25th. Oh fuck, I'm away so won't be able to :banghead
  15. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,268
    2-1 Ecuador - I reckon Honduras will start kicking now (even more than they've been doing) so having a bit on a sending off at 4.0 :crossfingers
  16. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,268
    ARGENTINA v IRAN

    Bookings - no bet (only 3.0 for 25pts and under which is a bit short, I think punters)

    Corners - no bet (only 1.96 for 9 and under so no value there)

    Corners match bet - layed Argentina @ 1.15 and backed Iran @ 12.5 (Argentina only won 2 corners v Bosnia and are way too short)
  17. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,268
    I've just had a £53 lay of Argentina matched at 1.02 (50/1) in the Corners match bet market - currently 15 mins gone and no corners for either team. Even if it loses, that's massive value. Thanks, whoever you are.
  18. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    First corner to Iran :)
  19. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    1-1 now on corners, I really could do with Argentina taking the lead.
  20. Punter

    Punter Moderator

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    6,833
    Unbelievable price Seen, well done and good luck!

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