Dec 20th - The Ladbroke Hurdle - 25/1 E.W. bet

Discussion in 'Ante Post' started by punter, Dec 18, 2014.

  1. punter

    punter Member Staff Member

    Gassin Golf (25/1 various, as short as 14/1)

    I've had a big (by my small standards) e.w bet on this. That's not to say it will win this time, but it will win a decent race this season.

    It's a chancers bet because i dont know what condition he's in after 126 days off.

    What i like about this one though is the trainer has no problem sending him to the big meetings He's raced at Cheltenham, Sandown Punchestown and Ascot this year and has also traveled as far a field as Perth for a race. Always ridden by good jockeys too, Richard Johnson, Davy Russell and Jamie Moore. I like the 1st time booking of Daryl Jacob for this race too.

    He's been placed in some good races. Although on different going and 3 furlongs further there was a lot to like about his 3rd the last time he was at Ascot. He would surely of won had he not been badly hampered at the last (having already been slightly hampered 3 out). He still finished only just over a length behind Shelford that day who is currently 2nd favourite for this race and has won twice since.

    The Sandown, and Punchestown form is good but i'm not sure what to think of the last two runs.

    I think he has to be considered at this price for an e.w bet, which could look even better by Saturday with one or two dropping out. It's just a case of whether he's ready after a break.

    Trainer had a 25/1 winner over hurdles last week.
     
  2. beamer

    beamer Member Staff Member

    Well I'm now on it Punt. Best day of the year for me today, well two days, so I'm happy to join you.

    I know sweet F.A about the jumps, but you seem to do well.

    Richard Lee does not scream out a Ladbroke trainer, but as you state he's in decent form 3/8 (38%) last 14 days .

    I don't think the lay off will be an issue as I would have thought it would be a case of preserving his mark for this.

    Why they haven't gone chasing is a possible concern, if he's schooled badly over fences:

    Comment from sandown run;
    I'm not sure there has ever been a winner with a 0/12 runs over hurdles, but at least he has placed form.

    I've tried to C&P the previous runs of all runners in last 11 years, but made a balls of it.

    Basically anything in the 1st 3 home in previous run has collected 8 from the last 9 runnings.

    First 38 4 -2.75 11% 13 34%
    Second 38 1 -12 3% 5 13%
    Third 25 3 48 12% 7 28%
    Fourth 12 0 -12 0% 5 42%
    Fifth 13 0 -13 0% 1 8%
    Sixth 14 0 -14 0% 1 7%
    Seventh 2 0 -2 0% 0 0%
    Eighth 5 0 -5 0% 1 20%
    Ninth 5 0 -5 0% 1 20%
    Tenth 1 0 -1 0% 0 0%
    Eleventh 3 0 -3 0% 0 0%
    Twelfth 2 0 -2 0% 0 0%
    Thirteenth 3 1 12 33% 1 33%
    Fourteenth 2 0 -2 0% 0 0%
    Fell 6 0 -6 0% 0 0%
    Left at Start 1 0 -1 0% 0 0%
    Pulled Up 5 0 -5 0% 1 20%


    5 of the last 9 also gone to 5 yo's.

    Good luck mate.
     
  3. punter

    punter Member Staff Member

    Nice one beam that's great to hear :)

    Thanks for the stats, good to see the trainer likes him too. I'll be following Gassin Golf this season, i'm not sure if this is his race but i've taken the chance that it might be. We'll see, good luck us!

    Dont forget to look in on Betnod and fill your scores in!
     
  4. beamer

    beamer Member Staff Member

    Thanks for the reminder Punt.

    I've tried to C&P the previous runs of all runners in last 11 years, but made a balls of it.

    Basically anything in the 1st 3 home in previous run has collected 8 from the last 9 runnings.

    5 of the last 9 also gone to 5 yo's.

    My simple shortlist leaves:

    Garde La Victoire 11/1
    Bayan. 12/1.
    Goodwood Mirage. 14/1.
    Shelford. 6/1.
    Gassin Golf. 25/1
    Hello George. 14/1.

    I can't grasp the HRB results as they show the last 11 years but only 9 winners in the stats ?? My stats my be incorrect as a consequence.

    The market appears " not to know" when it comes to this race; fav's have struggled although the % take out has only been around 22.5%, but the last 4 winners have been 10/1, 25/1, 12/1, 12/1.

    Pipe / Henderson have a strong presence in the winners table, but I really could not put that down as a strong trend even with 6 winners in the last 11.

    A mate of mine has backed Gassin Golf in the race and asked me for my opinion , although I think he was basically telling me to back it.

    My biggest neg for GG is the fact it's 0/12 over hurdles and he was being aimed at a chasing campaign. Apart from that, he really has little going against him from my view.

    Richard Lee does not scream out a Ladbroke trainer, but as you state he's in decent form 3/8 (38%) last 14 days .

    I don't think the lay off will be an issue as I would have thought it would be a case of preserving his mark for this.

    Why they haven't gone chasing is a possible concern, if he's schooled badly over fences:

    Comment from sandown run;
    He jumped super and you´ve got to be pleased with that. He might go back to Ireland now. He was second at Punchestown last season and there´s a race for him at Fairyhouse. He´s a chaser in the making and I can´t wait for next season with him. - Richard Lee, trainer
    I'm not sure there has ever been a winner with a 0/12 runs over hurdles, but at least he has placed form.
    Gassin Golf is an easy enough pick at the price and the fact there are plenty of "positive" comments in a lot of his races. ( If you read through the RP comments it's a virtual lovefest).

    Running in the Triumph on 2nd run was probably a major mistake, but we a ll dream and was probably purchased with a view to racing at the festival.

    Probable fav Shelford has the beating of Gasin Golf from March, but GG is 2lb better off and the ground may also be a factor in reversing form; both were hampered in that race, so hard to say what the result would have been. The perception is Shelford is "progressive", but GG is 4 times the price.

    Having ruled out Shelford on price, that leaves me one from four to choose from for a saver.

    Bayan is the one that takes my eye , but has a going concern; has form on soft at a lower level, but best hurdling form has come on decent ground. Although his last run was a genuine attempt on the flat, it also has protected his hurdling mark, as 146 still looks a workable mark.
     
  5. beamer

    beamer Member Staff Member

    Sorry Punt, I put the above post out on Thursday but forgot to C&P it until I got back from golf.

    GG looked like it was jumping it's hurdles like a chaser early on.
     
  6. beamer

    beamer Member Staff Member

    Looks like it had a serious problem Punt.

    "The Veterinary Officer reported that GASSIN GOLF, unplaced, trained by Richard Lee, finished distressed."
     
  7. punter

    punter Member Staff Member

    Yes, there was obviously a problem with him today, couldn't believe what i was watching, he just never showed and he looked all wrong after the 1st hurdle. He was well supported today too, went off @ 14/1 in the end.

    Nice pick with Bayan mate!
     

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