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Form after Lock Down

Discussion in 'Betting Talk' started by Punter, Apr 27, 2020.

  1. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    7,797
    I've almost got used to not having a bet with this lock down.
    I'm saving a bit by and it's encouraged me to bet differently when it all comes back.
    I'm thinking a little less of the combo's and little more of a daily single, at decent stakes.

    But that aside it got me thinking about form after lock down, there wont be anything to go on will there. You wont be able to trust form in either football or horses.
    A lot of form lines will be gone because of the down time. Possible empty stadiums too. How long before we can decide what form is concrete? Where's the value?
    I think very small bets for at least 6 weeks during this period.

    Anybody got a plan of attack for the re start?
  2. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    11,340
    Punt, you have no form on at the start of any flat season other than the ones that have been running on the all weather and 75% of those animals are walking dog food.

    I think there will only be flat racing to start with because the jumps boys have more accidents and the last thing the sport needs is for half a dozen jockeys to be taken to a local hospital taking up the NHS's valuable time. There would be an outcry from the people who are already trying to get the sport banned. What you need to be looking for early doors are horses that go well fresh and don't go against anything that's been massively gambled on for the first month until things settle down. The usual suspects will be the ones to follow with their two year olds just like any other season (as long as you stay away from the odds-on shots).

    I like the idea of singles rather than combo bets but I like the sound of "decent stakes" a lot less. If you want, I can PM you a staking strategy that I often use which will make your money go further (no staking system can turn you into a winner). It's been so long since I've had a bet that I can't put my hand on any of my notebooks at the moment but I could knock something up off the top of my head which won't be too far off. Let me know if you're interested and let me know what sort of odds you're usually betting on.
    Punter likes this.
  3. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    11,340
    Also, how much do you plan on losing per week:lol
    Punter likes this.
  4. Seen

    Seen Moderator

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    3,686
    Might be worth reading trainers websites / blogs / twitter etc as it starts up again to get an idea which yards are thought to be behind in the fitness stakes. Surely some will be able to carry on as near to normal while others will be severely hampered by the crisis.
    Punter likes this.
  5. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    11,340
    Good point. I've heard certain regulars on Racing TV say there's no such thing as trainer form but that's total bollocks. I can tell you now that James Tate will hit a patch as he does every year when you can make money blindly following his horses and then, just as quickly, it's over.

    Trainer form will be something to keep an eye on in the early weeks
    Punter likes this.
  6. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    7,797

    My thoughts are finding a daily price at Evens or above (not sure if i should cap a price at present)?
    Level stakes, trying to break around level with 3 wins from the seven days, a profit from four or more, sort of odds.
    Football or horse racing markets. So if you do have a better staking plan for this then yeah, please let me know.
  7. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    11,340
    I know you probably don't deal in "betting banks" and shit like that but do you have an idea of what you're capping your losses at for the week? You can pm me if you want.
    Punter likes this.
  8. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    7,797
    4 straight losses is the only way that would end my betting week. Restart the following week.

    At very least i'd need to find 3 winners a week but it would need to be closer 4 in order for me to continue with it. Otherwise i'll be back to combo's.
    My betting bank will be 10 x the amount i stake daily.

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