Out of a discussion about the Lincoln Handicap earlier in the week, I intend to prove that you can make a profit on horse racing without knowing the slightest thing about it. Oh yes, it really is that easy. The initial discussion is as follows in bold type.. Here’s an interesting experiment for you, five random numbers, 5, 7, 11, 13 and 25. Without knowing the final line ups for Saturday’s race or obviously the other big sprint handicaps this season, what do u think the chances woild be if making a profit if you backed those five horse numbers at 2pts for win if under 10/1 and 1pt ew if 10/1 and over? Rediculous idea but I think you may be surprised. I’d like to know what odds anyone might give of being in overall profit at some stage during the season. If u think that 6 places are regularly offered on these races i reckon theres a good chance that you’d find yourself in the black if u shopped around for prices, There is no number 25 so what I'm going to stipulate is that the numbers I'm going to use are 5, 7, 11, 13 and then the next number that has a 5 or 7 in it until five horses are selected. I.e, tomorrow's Lincoln would therefore be 5, 7, 11, 13 and 15. If one of those became a non-runner, number 17 would take its place. Stakes are a maximum of 10 pts, being two on each horse , normally 2pt win if the initial price I select is under 10/1 and 1pt ew if 10/1 or over but thay may vary depending upon whether I have to use an alternative bookie at a lower price in order to get an additional place.
So let's kick off with the lincoln 335 Doncaster tomorrow 5. Ballard Down 14/1 is available but I'm going for the 12/1 with 6 places (1/5 the odds) with Skybet and Coral 7. Dolhphin Vista 33/1 available, again six places coral 11.Kings Gift, 25/1 available for six places but double that for 5 so I'm going for 50/1 (1/5 odds) with paddy power and betfair 13. Grey Britain 20/1 six places 15. Repercussion same price as above. Reserve will be 17 Fire Brigade which will be a 2pt win if any of the above don't run.
225 Doncaster ~(Spring mile) 5. Kings Pavilion 25/1 5 places paddy power 7.Brilliant Vanguard 28/1 5 places PP 11. Seduce Me 33/1 5 places Ladbrokes 13.Moonlight Navigator 40/1 5 placed betfair 15. Passtine 33/1 5 places lads pp and others Reserve number 17 Georgian Bay currently 40/1 5 places boylesports
Think it will probably throw some winners because of the amount of runners youll have running for you in each race,over a season??? Just big race h'caps,ODM?
That's the idea mate, yes. The idea is to stick with ones with at least 15 runners. It's just something that occurred to me a few years ago when I was putting on an Irish Lottery bet at the same time as looking at the racecard for the day. It occurred to me that I'd probably be more likely to get a winning forecast on a big race than I would of having a treble with five numbers on the lottery. True, the lottery pays 325/1 or something for a treble but, believe or not, the forecast for the Spring Mile at Doncaster last Saturday paid £626 with a 50/1 winner. These races regularly throw up 33/1 winners and ignoring the prices and sticking rigidly to the numbers selected is pretty much the only way you're going to be on some of them. I'm not happy with the staking system because the way it is at the moment means that I would need to hit one of those 50/1 winners more regularly than is likely so I will tinker with it for the future, possibly staking 12 points split over 5 horses for example. I'm also happy to leave out horses that I think are too short a price. This silly system is all about getting decent priced winners and placed horses . Anyway 20pts down after 2 races. I have to say that from the little bit of a dabble that I had with this with some of the big races over the last three years or so, it has been very rare not to have at least a placed horse over two races but that's the curse of raising a thread like this lol.
A mile race today, gonna give it a go - 345 Newbury No 5 Ballard Down 1pt ew 33/1 5 places 7 Elusive Heights 40/1 1pt ew 6 places 11 Afaak 2pt win 13/2 13 Leader Writer 1pt ew 10/1 5 places 15 Third Time Lucky 1pt ew 18/1 Reserve (in case any of the above are non runners) 17 Humbert 1pt ew 12/1 5places
