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If Leicester lose today, they won't win the league

Discussion in 'Betting Talk' started by ONEDUNME, Apr 3, 2016.

  1. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    12,545
    I know I'm likely to regret this post as my pride as well as my pocket are going to suffer if I'm wrong but I'm absolutely convinced of the above and I'll tell you why.

    I filled in one of those online predictor things at the beginning of the year and it showed Arsenal winning the league. Since then (leaving aside the fact that I obviously failed to predict Man City's sudden demise) the general trends have been OK.

    I have Leicester picking up 12 points from their last 7 games but they have a pretty shitty run in with home fixtures against Southampton, West Ham, Swansea and Everton and away fixtures against Chelsea, Man United and Sunderland. Their away fixtures are all tough and it would be no surprise to see them pick up no more points on their travels. On the other hand, their home form has been impressive, so let's say they can win three of them and draw one to give them ten points on top of their existing 66, that would give them a total of 76 at the end of the season.

    It's been quoted as a two horse race between Leicester and Spurs but if Arsenal can find some consistency, they are good enough (at their best) to pick up 17 points from their remaining 7 games to put them on 75 points.

    Spurs' remaining fixtures are against Man United, West Brom and Southampton (from which, I have them picking up 7 points) and away fixtures against Stoke, Chelsea and Newcastle (from which I have another 6 - two wins against Newcastle and Stoke and a loss against Chelsea, although I wouldn't be surprised with one point each against Stoke and Chelsea which would drop that down to 5 points)

    Summary:
    Leicester win today and they win the league
    Leicester draw today and they end up on 76 points which is enough (by my logic) to win the league by a point.
    Leicester lose today and they pick up only another 9 points to leave them ending the season on 75 points. Their goal difference is significantly lower than that of Spurs already but 1 better than Arsenal. Given that Arsenal have significantly greater ability to win games by 3 or 4 goals (whilst Leicester tend to scrape victory by the odd goal) plus they will have had to have won more games than Leicester to end up on 75 points, the title would go to either Arsenal or Spurs on goal difference.

    I understand that I'm a lone voice in the wilderness and a win from Leicester today will make all of the above moot but I still believe that Leicester's last three fixtures are so tough that they could end up with no points from them which means that, unless the gap is 9 points or more by the end of April, they could still blow it.
    If the gap after today is just 4 points over Spurs (and 8 over Arsenal with their game in hand) I definitely think they won't get their hands on the title
    ONEDUNME, Apr 3, 2016
    #1
  2. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    8,806
    Leicester to win the league then!

    I hope so, even though they've cost me, i hope so.

    Shocks have been popping up in the European leagues in recent years. Montpellier won the French league in 2012 when they had no right too. Atletico Madrid were a 100/1 chance when they won la Liga in 2014.
    Leicester winning the premier league would be the biggest shock of all time though, if you go back to August.

    What a chairman too! A free beer and donut for every fan at todays game lol
    Punter, Apr 3, 2016
    #2
  3. slick

    slick Administrator

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    15,612
    I think Leicester should be ok now, grinding put 1-0 wins has been the way to go in the past and that's exactly what they're doing and to my surprise doing it well.
    I thought they might have come unstuck changing their football style but they have proved me wrong, I've also said the last half dozen games of the season is where it's at, where teams normally fail but with the buffer Leicester now have, fingers crossed they should be ok.

    Like ODM has mentioned though, the game against Southampton was vital, had they slipped up there than I could have seen Spurs slipping in with the run in Leicester have.
    They just need to remain focused now, and not slip up against Sunderland or their remaining home fixtures.
    slick, Apr 4, 2016
    #3
  4. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,909
    I certainly wouldn't back Leicester to win at Sunderland at 11/10.

    Sunderland have only won one of their last 10 games but are actually playing well without winning since they brought in some decent players in the January transfer window (Kirchhoff, Kone and Khazri) and Allardyce has made them hard to beat. They've drawn their last 4 games but really ought to have won the last three (conceded last-kick-of-the-game equaliser v Southampton, conceded late equaliser v Newcastle after totally dominating first half, and then doing everything but score v WBA whose keeper had a blinder).

    Even though Leicester's defence has been superb of late I reckon Sunderland can score at least one goal, and with Leicester's goals drying up somewhat (1121111) I can see this being a draw, or maybe Sunderland can nick it?

    What effect that would have on the mindset of the Leicester players is anyone's guess but it would make things interesting. Next up will be West Ham who haven't lost for 2 months and are still in with a chance of a top 4 finish.
    Seen, Apr 4, 2016
    #4
  5. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    15,612
    I wouldn't back them either, these are the worst kind of games for Leicester against teams fighting for their lives but has to be one of the games they need to target to get past that finishing line.
    Any slip ups here and it will be squeaky bum time because I fancy West Ham to beat them should they keep getting everyone behind the ball grinding out 1 nils.
    slick, Apr 4, 2016
    #5
  6. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    15,612
    Well I'd say that's about it, well done Leicester:clap

    Surely even I can't put the bloody mockers on this one.
    slick, Apr 25, 2016
    #6
  7. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    12,545
    yeah fair play to em. I'm backing United to beat them on Sunday though
    ONEDUNME, Apr 26, 2016
    #7
  8. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,909
    Yeah, they probably have it tied up now, but.....the value seeker in me is wondering if 16/1 for Spurs is just a bit too big?

    Leicester need 3 points from their last 3 games, assuming Spurs win their last three. That should happen really but their next game is away to a resurgent Man Utd on Sunday, who are incredibly still in with a chance of finishing 3rd. Should they drop points there - and the odds of a Leicester win (13/5) suggests they will - and then Spurs beat Chelsea on Monday night, then those odds for Spurs will drop.

    Failure to beat Everton at home would leave them needing to win away at Chelsea on their final game of the season...

    Actually I've just looked and Leicester are 11/10 to beat Everton a week on Saturday - Everton are a complete shambles at the moment and Leicester are flying.....how can they possibly be odds-against?????
    Seen, Apr 26, 2016
    #8

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