Lingfield 2.30

Discussion in 'Lays' started by beamer, Dec 3, 2014.

  1. beamer

    beamer Member Staff Member

    Dungannon.win Lay @ 3.0

    Never won off this high. best on turf and sire track stat not great.

    Small field a concern but looks over-bet.
     
  2. beamer

    beamer Member Staff Member

    Brighton 1.50. Fast Enough. Lay @ 2.74

    I want to be against the fav Fast Enough in the the 1st at Brighton tomorrow, but he's only against 3 opponents and two unraced, but your figures give me hope. The main concern is a non runner. The horse looks a dodgepot even though on a mark of 77 and the trainers good record at the track (is he having a blip ???) and your figures. The return to 6f may help, but beaten at 2/1, 7/4 & 11/8.

    I'm not sure what I've got in opposition, but Waslawi has improved from run to run and should be a threat if this does not come too soon.

    The two SBS runners today at Southwell were awful prices and this looks a similar type although the field size is a worry.

    The rand plan was to back Waslawi with a saver on the Johnson horse @5/1, but it' s been well backed so straight lay.

     
  3. beamer

    beamer Member Staff Member

    late post but linked to the win bet posted.

    Leicester 2.00. Arab Poet. Lay @ 2.24

    Similar situation to my bet yesterday in that SD does appear to have a couple of dangers, but should be fav in my eyes.

    The fav Arab Poet simply looks over bet to me. Trained by SMS and on the back of debut run showing "promise", may be enough for him to win this, but 11/8 looks a daft price to me.

    Perception will be that his trainer is the better 2yo trainer, but he's only had one 2yo winner this season, which does not inspire, even for a trainer renowned who brings them along slowly. Eve Johnson Houghton with a smaller string has managed two 2yo winners.

    SMS's record with 2yo's at the track during August shows a large loss, with only a 4/6 winner from 18 runners.

    SD's maiden looks the strongest on offer ( Al Khafji will probably turn out the strongest in time), with the winner aimed at the Mill Reef and the 2nd looking a rock solid 80 horse. Step up in trip a major plus and really only has a going issue to cause concern. Jockey trainer stat is a big negative but I'm viewing this as a blip.

    Al Khafji is bound to improve but I can never trust what the trainer has in mind for his horses and that comment also applies to the trainer of Gershwin. Both will probably be better 3 yo's than the pick, but I can see SD coming out on top today.
     

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