Melodifestivalen 2012

Finally som success on my part! Well, my SC-candidate once AGAIN finished 5th (I should start betting for that instead), but I still netted a nice profit due to my Ranelid-bets. I upped my stakes with him as his odds drifted to 3.40 near the start of the show, figuring web polls would translate into actual votes this time around. Plus, "memorable" is an understatement...

Nice one Squall. Glad I sat this week out!

Short comment on last week: my upset bet Mattias Andreasson is now second on the Swedish iTunes chart, virtually unheard of for anyone not winning the whole thing. Oh well, I guess we all knew that perhaps the MF audience wasn't ideal.

The press has seen the entries for this week, and odds have been set. My first reaction: PHEW. That my Algmark chance seems to be down the drain doesn't really matter when Danny seems to live up to expectations. I'm so stuffed with Danny-to-Q bets it ain't even funny (even tipped my parents, lol). I'm also heavy on Danny to win bets, as I've found the odds for him to be far too high and the hype on Loreen perhaps a bit too extreme. Crossing my fingers!

I still can't hear Danny's preview. I've listened to Alex's - it's not that bad, just a bit alternative in presentation.

Danny is available at 4.5 to win the whole thing I see.... Have you heard it Squall?

Nope, still not up. Looks like it will be AMAZING though ;) hope someone got the 8,00 odds I posted earlier in this thread. Is it really still 4,50 with Bet365? Pretty sick if so, other bookies have tops 2,50.

Alex' song would surely do well if all of Sweden's population watched and voted. He sounds more than a bit similar to Håkan Hellström, who is extremely beloved. Alas, I'm not at all sure this genre is popular with the MF-viewing crowd... could very well suffer the same fate as Mattias Andreasson - popular in general, but fail to attract the votes. Wouldn't completely rule out SC though, it all depemnds on just how modern the audience is this year. The two SC faves are both very old fashioned.

Actually, Danny's clip is up now, here:

http://svt.se/melodifestivalen/20120223174744/danny_saucedo_lyser_pa_scenen

With just that clip, I can't say the actual song quite lives up to the hype for me - but on the other hand, few songs do with just a one min clip.

Presentation on the other hand... jesus. The background LED-clad dancers look amazing, and man can Danny dance. Pretty sick with that dance act while singing.

Bet365 have just removed the market. Tossers. gobshites. raaaahhhhhh!

Changed my mind on the song after a few listens - this is some gooood shit mind you, I might be partial though, due to my Danny-heavy book. But if it's not top 2 in the finals, something is seriously wrong.

Prediction: this one is odds fave on Monday.

and only 6.3 available for Sweden on betfair. I reckon if he's selected, Sweden won't go above 10.0 unless they get a bad draw.

Odds to Q for Danny now 1.00 on Betsafe

In terms of facebook likes: Danny, Alex and Charlotte are the only ones in contention.

I'm aware that I'm beginning to sound like a fanboy now, but... Danny making his entrance to the tunes of last year's "Popular" by Saade, that's just genious

What happened to Alex? I didn't see him during the recaps or the result announcement.

Is this the correct thread for monumental Loreen - Euphoria love? Absolute class on all levels for me and should be walking Eurovision 2012 without breaking sweat.

Loreen's indeed getting major love on Internet, andhas been doing so ever since she qualified. For example, she's quite handily winning number of FB likes on the MF site. Also, she's number one on the iTunes charts now (before Danny at no 2).

However, one should remember that Loreen also looked quite strong in these matters last year (though not nearly as strong as this year, of course). For example, she was 4th/5th on the iTunes chart, making it look like she'd crush SC opposition. Not so, she didn't even win round 1 there. Bottom line is that it's not easy to know how much her support translates to votes. Her typical fan isn't really the typical MF-viewer, and even less so the typical voter. She might have won over a large group teen girls this time around though, an obviously important group.

Among middle-aged women, however, she's likely trailing Danny. He put up a suprisingly weak performance in the semi, rumored to be due to bad audial feedback (he had been singing quite allright druing rehearsals). Of course, the 7kg suit and crazy dance routine doesn't help.

It does help for the wow-factor, though. Where Loreen is beautifully minimalistic, Danny puts on quite the show. That, combined with inclination to vote among fans, gives Danny the nod for me. That is, with the popular vote - juries are even more unpredictable. Last year, however, they did not seem to have a problem with either gimmicks, nor Danny himself. But what will they think of Loreen's well sung number?

For Danny, there's also the risk of vote-splitting with Daniel Lindgren (I don't see such a risk for Loreen). However, we saw no such pattern last year, where Danny and Saade were top 2 with both public and juries.

To sum it up, this feels like a toss-up atm. However, if Danny can put on the needed show, he's my tip to win the whole thing. Of course, further analysis is needed after we know the 2 last entries, as well as performance order.

Interesting fact: this last semi had by far the fewest viewers, but the by far most votes.

Why is this?
Could be that the upset Lisa Miskovsky made a huge mark, or that the overall quality was that much better this week. Or, there's the possibility that well-produced, gimmicky stage-shows with a handsome dude singing are really, really hard to beat ;)

Thanks, squall. I only heard Loreen for the first time yesterday and was absolutely blown away by the quality of song and performance. Far above any of the Eurovision entries I've heard so far and I admit I'll be gutted if she isn't selected. The Danny song, I found to be a pretty standard pop song (also camp as hell) albeit with a very strong "hook". My head was swimming with "amazing, awesome, great, amazing". Just watching him live now and.... he's not the best singer. In fact, he's shocking. Oh dear. Far worse than I expected.

The Swedes tend to let me down with their selection so I suppose another year of hurt could be on the cards.

Just for the record, that Euphoria song is even better than my no longer all time fav, Ruslana and Wild Dances. It's everything a Eurovision song should be. And more.

Mickey, to be fair to Danny that's not how he usually sounds. If you can find it, listen to last year's "In the Club", or even just the winner's repeat performance from last Friday. IMO a world of difference (although nowhere near Loreens singing skills).

Speaking of last year, you should listen to "my heart is refusing me". In my opinion it's better than "Euphoria".

Nothing can be better than Euphoria! It's so brilliantly constructed and performed. I really will cry if she's not in.

Anyway, I'll have a look, squall and I'll give Danny more of a listen too.