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ODM's Pretty Young Things

Discussion in 'Horse Racing & Greyhound Tips' started by ONEDUNME, Apr 25, 2016.

  1. slick

    slick Administrator

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    10,388
    Nice one mate:thumb
  2. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    Couldn't ask for a better start. I intend to keep a track of SP as well for analysis purposes but bet returned _27.5 pts for the standard 10pt stake.

    I won't average one a day until the turf season starts but I do have one for tomorrow. Sir Hamilton 10pt win 9/4 (bet365) without the jockey that guided him to victory last month and up against what looks to be a very strong favorite in Beautiful Memory (11/8). Won the last two of it's three races and they won't be the last of his wins this season.
  3. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    9,865
    Forgot to add race 700 Chelmsford
  4. rcgills

    rcgills Moderator

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    Well done ODM, good start :thumb
  5. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    Sir Hamilton never settled. Pulled its head off in what was a very slowly run race on only its fourth ever race. Will definitely stay in my tracker as showed enough to be worth following.

    Favorite won well and given a good ride by William Cox, Beautiful Memory will be worth looking at for future races, price permitting.

    20 pts staked, 37.5 returned to date (25pts returned to SP just for the record). No bets for me tomorrow
  6. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    9,865
    Tomorrow

    815 Kempton Karijini 20pt win 15/8 (Nap)

    205 Newcastle Native Appeal 10pt win 6/4
    420 Newcastle Kripke 10pt win 7/2
  7. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    Nap won (drifted to 2/1 this afternoon but ended up winning at 11/8). Other two lost, making a profit of 17.5pts on the day. Five bets so far, two winners, 60pts staked, 95pts returned, profit of 35pts.

    Just to keep a record at SP as well, only 12.5pts in profit which seems to shows the importance of getting on at early prices.
    Kegman and Punter like this.
  8. Kegman

    Kegman Moderator

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    2,222
    Nice start ODM :beer
  9. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    4 year old from last year's trakcer 745 Wolves Liquid 10pt win 3/1
    225 Doncaster - I've gone against this one myself but it's appeared in my tracker so I'll have to put it in this thread Taqdeer 225 Doncaster 5pt win 11/2
    Punter likes this.
  10. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    Right, now that the bad weather is behind us, I can start this thing in earnest. First an update from March, the two horses above both lost. The first one was backed into 7/4 from 3/1 and lost and the second one came 7th and then went out and won at 4/1 next time out:lol.

    Scores on the doors so far this calendar year, 7 selections, two winners, profit of 20pts to date.

    200 Salisbury today Cotubanama has only ran once but cut through the pack to finish 3rd on its debut after being dropped out at the back. Don't know if that will be its run style or weather the jock was just caught out or outpaced. Also don't know how good or how tired the horses were that it overtook but at the very least it showed a game attitude and that's one of the things I look for in a young horse.

    10pt win. 9/2 was available this morning but still plenty of 4/1 left but if I was advising a bet, I would take the insurance bet which means money back if it finishes 2nd or 3rd. 5/2 with Coral, Betred and Totesport.

    The other one for today is is Assimile.Steady enough debut finishing 4th, clear of the rest of the pack and then 2nd at 15/8 and then winning at 20/1. Failed on its first run on (heavy) turf with a rating on 79 so will be interesting to see how he fairs today on the same mark on soft. 2pts ew 25/1 1/5 3 places.
  11. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    I've changed my mind and am going to take my own advice and not back the win but back the 3 insurance bet 12pts at 5/2

    16pts staked on day
  12. SAMOAN

    SAMOAN Moderator

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    Joined / cursed you on Assimile, but gone 4 places on Bet 365's EW extra
  13. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    Bugger, I never thought of that. Good move mate as it finished 4th:thumb. Wouldn't be surprised if you got a better price than the eventual SP too.

    Cotubanama won at 5/1:thumb
  14. SAMOAN

    SAMOAN Moderator

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    Was 25's when I place the bet, so got 20's ( 4 places and a fifth the odds ) Stuck a couple of rags in for the miracle forecast and ended up with 2nd, 4th and 5th, though to be fair the winner won easy.
  15. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    I'm so bloody annoyed for not thinking about that option. I will certainly bear it in mind for bigger prices in the future - thanks mate
  16. SAMOAN

    SAMOAN Moderator

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    3,581
    As a quick example from the above race, ERLAFANN and CHANGING MINDS were both 66's ( 3 places ) but with the Each Way extra option both were 33's ( 6 places for one fifth the odds )
  17. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    9,865

    Yeah I use it all the time when the prices are decent, you can also get extra places with betfair too. It just never crossed my mind. I'm likely to be using a mixture of win bets, without the fav bets, insurance bets and each way bets but keeping a record of SP as well so I need to be keeping the extra places in mind
  18. SAMOAN

    SAMOAN Moderator

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    Tricky as regards staking, but probably worth it in the long run. At the moment going with 60 % of my stake on the EW extra option, though open to other folks suggestions. Always likely to finish one outside of whichever place option you take, but certainly adds an extra dimension to EW betting.
  19. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    Yeah, it's a matter of weighing up the options on a bet by bet basis. I often find that if the best price I can get about a horse is 20/1, I can often get 18/1 with the extra place which is worth disregarding the difference. If I'm being asked to take six points or so lower then I would probably let the extra place go for the amount of times it's going to pay off.
  20. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    9,865
    Maybe not 18/1, maybe 16/1 is more realistic

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