Prem handicap betting

Ok, so if we can get back to analysing the current handicap table and betting.....





The market seems to have this down to a 2-horse race to finish bottom at the moment, but the projected end-figures suggest it could be a lot more competitive than that, with at least another 3 teams easily capable of finishing bottom of the handicap. At this moment you'd have to say West Brom and Swansea are the value at 12.0, with West Brom really struggling to win games (just 1 win in last 14 and that was a 1-0 win over 10-man Newcastle via a late penalty) and Swansea who have just 1 win in 10 (against the woeful Fulham) and are currently managerless. West Ham can't be counted out either and even could even be pulled in to it.

Going back to the two teams who head the market, I think the odds are the wrong way around. Certainly Man Utd are having a nightmare season but with Mata on board and Rooney and Van Persie back, surely they'll be capable of picking plenty of points up. They lost at Stoke on Saturday but it was a wind-affected game which was a leveller and by all accounts they should have got something from the game. They'd won their last 6 games when up against bottom-half teams prior to that.

Fulham on the other hand, well, I watched them last night in the cup against Sheff Utd (2nd bottom of League One) and they were nothing short of FUCKING ATROCIOUS. They were actually a disgrace to their (few) fans who turned up, it was one of the worst games I've ever watched and laughed quite a bit when Sheff Utd scored a 120th minute winner. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they failed to win another game this season. To avoid finishing bottom of the hcap they are going to need to hit at least a point per game which looks impossible. They have the worst home record in the league and by far and away the worst defensive record overall, and have been haemorrhaging goals lately (441614223 - 27 in last 9 games, av 3 per game) and have a daunting set of fixtures coming up...

09-Feb-14 A Manchester United
12-Feb-14 H Liverpool
22-Feb-14 A West Bromwich Albion
01-Mar-14 H Chelsea
08-Mar-14 A Cardiff City
15-Mar-14 H Newcastle United
22-Mar-14 A Manchester City
30-Mar-14 H Everton


6 games v top-8 teams (Fulham's record v top-9 reads 0-0-11) and the two games against bottom-half teams are away. How many points are they going to get from this run? Maybe 4 or 5 maximum, and that's being kind. Surely they can't get a result on Sunday in the key game v Man Utd (Man Utd 2/9, Fulham 16/1) and defeat there will surely see them go favourites on this market.

There's £40 at 3.05 on Fulham, my head is saying take that now even though they're a winner in my book having had some on at 12.0 previously. Man Utd are my only losers (of the teams who can win).

Opinions?

Also, Fulham are 15/8 (Coral) to finish bottom of the Premier League, surely that looks a good price considering they are currently effectively 3 points adrift and have that tough run of fixtures coming up?

You'd think so Seen, be Interesting now to see how Swansea shape up now Laudrup has been sacked, he's a very good manager so i wouldn't be surprised to see them slipping further down the league.

Well I had thrown all of my betting eggs in one basket, relying on Man Utd to beat Fulham on Sunday, only for the spastic fuckers to fuck it right up. The 'Fulham to finish bottom' @ 15/8 still looks okay but them to finish 'bottom of the handicap' now looks perilous as Man U are favs - that 3-point turnaround with the late equaliser will probably prove costly. Luckily I was able to trade a nice profit on the game (layed Man U @ 1.18 pre-match, then backed them back at 6.0 before they scored and then a little on the draw at 21.0 when it was 2-1) which covers all possible losses plus a little more, so the worst case scenario is a small win - lucky to get out of it. Still can't believe how toothless Man U were in the box.

Just goes to show how you should never totally rely on one result, no matter how certain the result looks.

Very much looking like a 3-horse race now, on current form and upcoming fixtures I think Sunderland should be favourites, their confidence is at rock bottom and seem incapable of beating even the poorest of teams.

Next fixtures are...

Spurs A
Everton H
Man City A
Chelsea A

...I'll be staggered if they pick up more than one point from those 4 games.

Got £6.46 matched @ 10.0 on Sunderland to finish bottom of the handicap yesterday (already my biggest winner in the book, no harm in going to the well again), not sure what idiot layed me but perhaps they've done their maths wrong. They should be no bigger than 2/1 imo and are likely to be odds-on after those next 4 games, unless they can somehow completely turn the form book upside down and inside out.

Fulham and Man Utd both won today leaving Sunderland even more likely to finish bottom of the handicap. Fulham are now 2 points above them (in the hcap) and although Sunderland have 3 games in hand, Fulham have by far the easiest run-in and there's no point having games in hand if you are not good enough to win them. Man Utd are on a bit of a roll (5 wins from last 7 league games) and you'd have to fancy them to win their last 3 home games. The vast majority of Sunderland fans have resigned themselves to the fact that we are going down.

Current Betfair odds (back / lay)

1.55 / 3.5 - Man Utd
2.42 / 3.5 - Sunderland
3.45 / 4.7 - Fulham

The lack of liquidity makes Man Utd's price look artificially short (that's my £200 trying to lay 1.55, which would be massive value) but when the market fills out the odds will probably be something like...

3.0 Man Utd
3.0 Sunderland
4.0 Fulham

The 9/1 I got matched at yesterday was far too big, you'd think people would do their homework before putting their money down.

After todays games I did have a fiver saver on Swansea @ 15.0 as they have a tiny squeak of being dragged in to it if the above 3 all suddenly hit form.

I do agree with you ODM that this market is highly likely to go right to the last game of the season. At this moment in time I wouldn't take the 2.42 about Sunderland and I don't need to (I'm looking to lay off now), but I do think they'll be odds-on after their next 4 games. Of course a win at Spurs would change all that but it's highly unlikely.

Spurs 5-1 Sunderland

I told you we were shite

My fault Seen. I backed you for a top half finish as well as being top North East club. Sorry man.

Fuck me, no doubt you backed Dozy Altidore to be top scorer an'all, eh?

Now hang on a minute, i aint taking the blame for that!!