1. Hi and welcome to Betnod. If you would like to view the forum without adverts then please register.

Prem handicap betting

Discussion in 'Football Betting' started by Seen, Jan 14, 2014.

Page 3 of 3
  1. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,909
    racist
    Seen, Apr 7, 2014
    #41
    Punter likes this.
  2. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,909
    Altidore actually was made to play for the U21's tonight, Sunderland won 3-0......Dozy failed to score :duh
    Seen, Apr 7, 2014
    #42
  3. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,909

    Zero points v Spurs and Everton, easy trips to City and Chelsea next. My prediction of one point from those 4 games was generous :embarassed
    Seen, Apr 12, 2014
    #43
  4. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    8,806
    After todays results, in the bag now Seen?
    Punter, Apr 12, 2014
    #44
  5. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,909
    Not quite, but after Sunderland have been beaten in their next two games it will be. Unless Man Utd somehow fuck it up for me.

    68 (p33) WBA
    67 (p33) SWANSEA
    67 (p34) FULHAM
    62 (p32) SUNDERLAND
    59 (p33) MAN UTD

    Those are the handicap points as they stand, I really can't see Sunderland making up 5 points on Fulham or Swansea and Man Utd should easily make up 3 points from their remaining fixtures.
    Seen, Apr 12, 2014
    #45
  6. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    8,806
    Nice one Seen, Man Utd wont fuck it up.

    Sunderland @ 1.26 now
    Punter, Apr 12, 2014
    #46
  7. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    8,806
    Very good result for Sunderland, Seen. Two very good results actually.
    Punter, Apr 19, 2014
    #47
  8. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,909
    Yeah, but it's no good picking up points v the top teams if you're gonna continually fuck it up against your relegation rivals. On paper it looks like we have a cracking chance of achieving what looked impossible not long ago, with home games v Cardiff, WBA and Swansea to come, but it's false hope - we'll no doubt lose or draw v Cardiff next week and be back to square one.

    Number of Sunderland wins v top-half teams this season = 10
    Number of Sunderland wins v bottom-half teams this season = 1

    Possibly the most ridiculous footy stat I've ever seen. We've now beaten 10 top-half teams this season (league and cup), which is the same number as leaders Liverpool have :thinking
    Seen, Apr 20, 2014
    #48
  9. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    12,545
    I find that hard to believe Seen - Sounds like one of those headline stats that sounds significant but is actually bollocks - and I say that with a great deal of trepidation because I know you're a stats man. Do you mean the current top 10 or do you mean they were top 10 when you played them? Also, you would have to include 11th place for Liverpool otherwise you're only comparing 10 teams with 9 teams (obviously).

    So I think we're going to end up with a stat that says something like, Sunderland have played half a dozen more games against the top ten teams than Liverpool have played against 9 of the top 10 teams and won as many which, I dunno about you but doesn't sound quite as impressive to me.

    What baffles me is that they can actually beat these teams and, as you say, fail to beat teams around them. They are going to be very short to come back up if they do go down but that's got to be a frightening state of affairs. It's similar in a way to the Peterboro scenario last season - they were promoted but they found themselves pulling out wins against the top teams and struggling against the shit teams. They were short priced to get promotion and as short as 5tofucking2! to actually win the division in August. They are currently desperately trying to cling on to the 6th place that will take them into the play-offs.

    Should they be relegated, Sunderland would be favourites to win the Championship next season and although they may end up romping it, I think I'd be looking to lay them at a very short price.
    ONEDUNME, Apr 20, 2014
    #49
  10. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    12,545
    Obviously, the points taken v top teams v points taken v bottom teams is valid - just questioning the Liverpool comparison
    ONEDUNME, Apr 20, 2014
    #50
  11. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,909
    Yeah, the stat is correct as written (actually not now as 'Pool have just beaten Hull) but it includes cup games which boosts Sunderland's win up with 4 in the cup. Still, they've won 6 in the league v top-half teams which must be some kind of record for a team who's rock bottom. Only the current top 6 can equal or better that.

    [​IMG]

    Just 1 win from 15 games v bottom half teams is pathetic, as is just 8 goals scored. As crazy as these stats are, it's actually quite logical - Sunderland are the type of team who are at their best when defending deep and hitting teams on the break, so when we play the better teams it suits us. When we play the shit teams around us the onus is on Sunderland to attack teams (especially at home) but they are completely devoid of any player who can unlock defences properly, so we end up dominating possession but hitting a brick wall when we get to the edge of the opposition's box. That's why we've scored just ONE goal in 6 home games v bottom-half teams (2 draws, 4 defeats).
    Seen, Apr 20, 2014
    #51
  12. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    12,545
    4 cup wins you say, that explains a lot but the stat still sound more impressive than it sounds in that Liverpool must have played (an this is off the top of my head so not 100% accurate but u get the idea) 16 games against the top ten (Chelsea an Newcastle to play I think) and I'm not sure how many cup games whereas I think Sunderland only have 1 game left against a top 10 team so that means 19 games -so that's three more. then they've had more cup games than pool against top ten teams so, as I said you're talking an extra half dozen games so hardly like for like which -to me - makes the stat sound more impressive than it actually is.

    by the way, pool have just beaten Norwich not hull but if you count the top ten teams other than them and make it a fairer comparison , I'm sure they've beaten palace anyway
    ONEDUNME, Apr 20, 2014
    #52
  13. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,909
    Sunderland are the only team in all 4 divisions (92 teams) not to have averaged at least 1pt per game v bottom half teams (they've averaged just 0.53).
    Seen, Apr 20, 2014
    #53
Page 3 of 3

Share This Page