Racing and Football Outlook Predictions

I hope theres no copyright infringement on passing on the RFOS predictions?
(in case there is,BUY the RFO,you know it makes sense and its a bargain at just £1.90)


Anyway,every season I like to buy their soccer annual with its predictions but that hasnt dropped through my letterbox yet.

These are from todays RFO which has a pullout and assessment of the 72 league clubs.


Okie dokie...doing it a bit at a time....



Championship Winners..............................BOLTON

Promoted WATFORD

Im very very happy to say that the RFO are predicting that the champions of League 1 will be.........


PETERBOROUGH UNITED


(Almost every bet Ive done so far includes Posh though most are to be top 6 or promoted)

Leaue 2 Champions


CHESTERFIELD

Im a bit annoyed about this as i was betting on them until I saw one of the RFOS writers say a few weeks ago that their price is too low.


Promoted


PORTSMOUTH


There is only one surprise in those tipped to be in the playoffs...........ROCHDALE




League 1 Play offs ................................BEES,MK DONS,BLADES

I don't see Peterborough being promoted. Ferguson is a useless shite who's got the club demoted as many times as he's got them promoted (I think). Two reasons why he won't succeed this season:

1/ He hasn't got daddy to loan him players anymore when he's in the shit

2/ Posh punched above their weight at times last season. Ominously though, those times were against the better teams in the league - I think they did the double over Cardiff for example. Against the teams around them at the bottom, they were shit. The teams that they're going to play this season will closer resemble the types of teams that they struggled against than the ones they beat.

They are as low as 9/4 to be promoted (same on betfair although the liquidity is not fully there yet). I'd want four or five times that price before I'd even look at them. The price is ridiculous.

...and the idea of putting on pre-season betting tips based on a national newspaper that thousands of other punters are also going to be basing their tips on strikes me as pretty silly as well tbh.

I think RFO pick of Rochdale,probably comes from they had key injuries during mid season that undone some of their early seasons good work,and finished the season well,have lost last season top scorer,if they can find a replacement for him,and the squads improved,saying that theres little to no money.Id rather have my money on Mansfield,20 game unbeaten run to get into the football league,teams from the conference do well in league 2 after promotion,lost last seasons top goalscorer,keep an eye on their transfer dealings,28s at the moment.

Hmm.

Forget Peterborough.

Speaking generally:

I just want to confirm that youre saying that if a well respected paper like the RFO or The Racing Post tips certain teams preseason its generally daft to bet them because they are unlikely to be value ?


That depends on whether you were placing just a few bets on antepost markets or whether you are intending to bet throughout the season.

If a team is heavily tipped I will tend to bet them .

The reason is that if the team gets off to a good start the price will fall quite sharply especially promotion odds.

If on the other hand a heavily tipped team gets off to an average start then the price will tend to remain stable.

And if it gets off to a poor start the price wont go up by as much as that of an untipped team.


Now,of course,this is just my opinion but I will be backing it with money this season as per usual.


When I place any antepost bet i regard it as a position to bet against later in the season.


All I can tell you is this works for me and thats why I do it.

that's exactly what I'm saying. if it works for you, it works for you and that's fine - you obviously shouldn't change it.

An extreme example of my theory would be Pricewise - the horse tipster. He may tip two horses that are 20/1 and 25/1 on a Friday night. By midday Saturday they could be 8/1 and 12/1(that's not an exaggeration). You may well make a profit backing Pricewise's tips over a year at the original prices but are they value on a Saturday lunchtime? Are they fuck.

For similar reasons you are never going to make a profit backing A P McCoy blindly over a season. Now if his name was A P Smith, you d be rolling in cash.