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Rugby Union 2018 Six Nations

Discussion in 'Other Sports Betting' started by traeth, Feb 1, 2018.

  1. traeth

    traeth Moderator

    Messages:
    1,691
    full fixture list with tv channels for each match here
    https://www.sixnationsrugby.com/en/matchcentre/index.php

    outright winner oddschecker odds
    Six Nations Winner
    England 2.1
    Ireland 2.88
    Scotland 12
    Wales 19
    France 26
    Italy 1000

    With last year being a "Lions Tour Year" , there are more injuries to the key players.
    Wales tend to do poorly following a Lions tour but those odds are tempting.
    Wales have selected ten Scarlets to start on Saturday against Scotland , Scarlets performances recently have been good.
    In the Autumn internationals Scotland played very well and have the least players affected by the Lions " tiredness factor"
  2. traeth

    traeth Moderator

    Messages:
    1,691
    first weekend fixtures with odds

    Saturday 3rd February 2018
    14:15 Wales (1.75)Draw (29)Scotland (2.5)
    16:45 France (3.5)Draw (26)Ireland (1.44)

    Sunday 4th February 2018
    15:00 Italy (19)Draw (67)England (1.07)

    the caps for each game
    Wales (-2) Scotland (+2)
    France (+6) Ireland (-6)
    Italy (+21) England (-21)

    I'm a big follower of a positive handicap for the home side .
    I'll be having a closer look at France ,
    Italy +10 at half time is another one that requires futher investigation.

    Anyone else have an opinion ?
    We had Doc posting a few months back , would be great to here his view.

    As always Wales will be getting my money , my heart ruling again but my head says England
  3. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    10,445
    I'm not a big RU fan traeth but like I've said in the past I do like the 6 nations and the 5 one b4 that lol.

    From the bits I've seen this year Scotland are playing well and have it within themselves to do well if they don't beat themselves up mentally , England and Wales will probably be favorites but both sides have injuries to key players, Ireland will as usual be tough to beat at The Aviva, France seem to get worse year by year and Italy will run one team close but get battered in the rest of their games.
  4. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    10,445
    Didn't realise Wales were 19's:eek, just goes to show what I know lol.
  5. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    10,445
    Surprised to see Scotland at 12's too, I was probably impressed by them the most in the Autumn Internationals and like you say they will have benefited most by have few players on the Lions tour.
  6. traeth

    traeth Moderator

    Messages:
    1,691
    Some great rugby in the first weekend

    Wales win easily after the Scots gifted them an intercepted try early on , after a second Wales try the Scots were poor and their away form continues to be pitiful.
    Ireland win with a late long range drop goal, great kick from Sexton, Ireland win by 2 points , France on the cap would have won, France involved in a HIA controversy again.
    Brian Moore comment of " brain in his knee" says it all.
    England score seven tries against Italy . H.T. score 10-17 , so the Italy +10 h.t. cap came in.
    Some great tries with some excellent moves by England's backs.
    ITV commentry was dire , but not as bad as John Invertwat post match comments on Saturday.

    Next weekend fixtures
    14:15 Ireland (1.02)Draw (201)Italy (67)
    16:45England (1.20) Draw (34)Wales (5.4)
    Sunday 11th
    15:00Scotland (1.53) Draw (26)France (3.02)

    the caps
    Ireland (-32) Italy (+32)
    England (-11) Wales (+11)
    Scotland (-5) France (+5)

    I think England v Wales will be a close one , at the moment I'm not confident enough to back a Wales win but Wales +11 is a bet for me.
    slick likes this.
  7. Colbro

    Colbro Well-Known Member

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    2,156
    What did he say?
  8. Doc

    Doc Member

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    34
    Hello traeth

    Busy procrastinating at work here, so thought I'd make a short diversion into this thread. The -32 point cap in the Ireland games looks well breachable. In the last 6 years against Italy (i.e. three home games), the scores have been 42-10, 46-7 and 58-15. Italy's traditional strength - the scrum, has got weaker and Ireland have got stronger in that area. You'll probably see significant game time for some of Irelands new generation - the Carbery, Larmour, McGrath, Leavy, Ryan, Conan group and these guys are fast, fit, skillful and full of confidence in the running game that Leinster are playing. Conor O'Shea has already said he'll freshen up the team, and I don't see it being any stronger than it was against England. Ireland won't turn over the ball often and will be fair close to as ruthless as England, but probably tighter in defence than England were.

    England-Wales will be interesting. I think Wales forwards are vulnerable to attack, and England have the beef to do it. Wales confidence will be sky-high though, and they have tended to bounce back well from poor seasons (like last) under Gatland. Their record over the last 10 years against England is ok - 6 wins from 14, including 3 at Twickenham. Most games have tended to be one score results. Not made up my find fully on this one, but instinct says Wales to beat the +11

    Scotland -5 to France jumps out at me as strange. Scotland have only won twice against France in 6N history, and only once in the last 10 years. Most recent games have been fairly close, but while Scotland have hinted at improvements (particularly under Vern Cotter), France have been shit for most of that time. I was quite impressed with them against Ireland last weekend though - their defence was really excellent, and their set-piece was good. Scotland have no front row to speak of, and their pack (with these injuries) is average on a good day. Finn Russell is a nice footballer, but disappears under pressure and I'm not convinced by any of their nines. My only slight concern would be France's discipline - they gave away some daft penalties last Saturday. That should be easily fixable, and I don't see Scotland being able to put enough pressure on up front to force many. I can't therefore see Scotland running up much of a score here, while the physical power of the French should be enough to generate points. I'll be surprised if France don't win by at least a score here.
    slick likes this.
  9. traeth

    traeth Moderator

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    1,691
    He went straight to pointing out the forward pass in the fourth try , which resulted in the bonus point and was backed by Nicol , no mention of the Wyn Jones "try" that was disallowed which would have given up the bonus point earlier.
    His praise of Halfpenny was begrudgingly given .
    Warburton later made a comment "People who criticise Halfpenny, I don't think they understand the game."

    It could be that my dislike for Invertwat clouds my understanding of what he actually says.
  10. traeth

    traeth Moderator

    Messages:
    1,691
    Hi Doc , great analysis.

    I'm a great believer in the advantage for the home side in international rugby.
    In the past Wales did struggle at Twickenham but that has been overcome in recent years , in the last 6 matches at Twickenham we have won 3 and lost 3 .
    I don't think that Garcias , the french ref will be influenced by the braying home crowd , I believed he reffed the lash two years ago at Twickenham , that was a close one.

    Still not convinced but sticking withe cap bet on Wales
  11. traeth

    traeth Moderator

    Messages:
    1,691
    I feel I must post about our local hero.

    Jess Kavanagh has been selected again on the wing for Wales against England , having scoring a try last week and being involved in all the tries.
    I used to coach her brother in the local U14 team , he went on to play football , Jess started off as a footballer when she was at school and converted to rugby at college. She used to come to watch the boys playing. She now coaches children and ladies at the same club

    here is a story about her dedication to training with Wales , under the title
    "The Wales rugby player who is dubbed 'mad' "

    https://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/wales-rugby-player-who-dubbed-14143730
    slick likes this.
  12. traeth

    traeth Moderator

    Messages:
    1,691
    week 2 results

    Scotland 32v26 France

    Ireland 56v19 Italy Ireland overcome the 32 cap, wll done doc

    England 12v6 Wales , within the 10 cap , bet is up

    This weekend's odds
    Friday 23rd 20:00
    France (1.11)Draw (51)Italy (10)
    France (-17) Italy (+17)

    Saturday 24th 14:15
    Ireland (1.29)Draw (29)Wales (4.6)
    Ireland (-10)Wales (+10)

    16:45
    Scotland (3.75)Draw (29)England (1.4)
    Scotland (+6)England (-6)

    Following France's performance on and off the field the team will be very different Friday but the are still good enough to beat Italy, I see it being very close to the cap so avoiding this game now.

    Wales have announced their team with three chances of Biggar, Williams and Halfpenny , All three are better challengers for the high ball , for us I see this being more defensive. I would have preferred if we would have persevered with Patchell but he does not make the bench this week.
    I can see a close match and I will be going with Wales +10

    England have the strength up front and some good backs , Scotland do perform much better at home. I can see this game being very entertaining but believe that it will be an away win . I can't decide if I'm going to place a bet yet.
  13. Doc

    Doc Member

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    34
    I fancy France. They've broken that cap in most of the recent games, and I think it has been a clever move by Brunel to drop all the guys. He'll have some hungry motivated players with a point to prove tonight.

    Most Wales-Ireland games are closer than 10. I hope I'm wrong, but that +10 for Wales looks tasty to me. Ireland have some significant injuries, and Wales are always up for this one.

    Can't see past England in this game. I really don't rate Scotland that highly, and I think their game against England last year and Wales this, are better benchmarks than some close shaves in the autumn international. England are strong in all the areas Scotland are weak. England -6
  14. Doc

    Doc Member

    Messages:
    34
    Well got those ones pretty wrong! Bookies bang on the handicap on two, and if I was reaching for excuses I'd say it was last minute scores that undid me in both. But of course last minute/first minute doesn't matter!

    I like the way Italy are moving, and their young full-back looks like a gem. France look blunt, but they're at least playing with some character. A stung England will probably be too much for them, but I can it being a real arm-wrestle.

    Ireland rewound the clock ten-fifteen years in terms of what used to work for them beating Wales - strangling them up front and playing keep-ball. Worryingly, Ireland's wide defence looks pretty suspect once again, and both England and Scotland have the pace and players to punish it. Their work up front is impressive. Wales, as I suspected, miss their relatively few world class forwards badly, and will remain vulnerable to teams who deny them the ball. They're great to watch in full flow though. With France and Italy to come, they should get another 9-10 points and possibly a runners-up spot.

    Really didn't see that Scotland performance coming, and am still trying to evaluate. I'm pretty sure England were bad, but I'm not sure how good Scotland were. You have to give credit for scoring 3 tries in a fixture where you previously had to go back to 2004 for their last one! Eddie Jones must be worried that his side hasn't really fired in 2 years with the exception of last years Scotland game. Townsend will be cock-a-hoop. Scots destiny in their own hands with 2 games to come - if they overcome Ireland they have Italy on the last day and it'd be hard to back against them being in serious contention for the title
    slick likes this.
  15. Doc

    Doc Member

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    34
    Last weeks results:
    France 34-17 Italy (on the handicap!)
    Ireland 37-27 Wales (on the handicap!)
    Scotland 25-13 England (England were -6)

    This weeks handicaps
    Ireland -10 vs Scotland
    France +7 vs England
    Wales -28 vs Italy
  16. Doc

    Doc Member

    Messages:
    34
    Ireland - Scotland
    I'm obviously biased on this one, so caveat emptor. It is a mark of how high expectations are now around Joe Schmidt and his team that (a) so many people are talking about a Grand Slam and (b) there is some dissatisfaction with how Ireland are playing. The former is probably understandable and all countries would be doing it in the same position, but it obviously has its dangers and Scotland are improving for sure. The latter is poorly informed in some quarters, but there are some issues to be concerned about - a recurrence of long-standing weakness on the wings/margins in defence, concession of late scores in games, and relatively little scoring given the percentage posession. The latter is in part down to how Ireland play, and how teams have played against them recently, but there are grounds for Scottish hope and concern for Irish supporters. However, I think Schmidt has been clever with his selections this week. There is real impact from the bench, Ringrose (if not too rusty - and he has coped well in the past in similar situations) is a very clever defender and there are key individuals - Larmour and Murphy with points to prove. Scotlands away record is abysmal, and even if they're improving overall this Irish team looks better to my eyes in most positions - particularly around the spine of 2,8,9,10,12. Scotlands scrum coped against England and Wales, but I think they could get an examination here. Scrums don't tend to settle games these days, even with the forecast poor, but they can confer a psychological and momentum advantage. Lineouts are likely to be won on throw - Irelands greater experience and possibly better individual jumpers nullified by Bests propensity to have a few leery throws. Irelands breakdown has been excellent and will continue to need to be against this outfit - they'll be helped though by having Barnes with the whistle, who unlike Owens in their last game, doesn't tend to allow much contest at the breakdown. As with most recent games I expect Irelands half-backs to ultimately settle this. My heart is more confident than my head, but I'm going with Ireland -10

    France - England
    France have been so shambolic in recent years, that I feel some people aren't giving them due credit for some things they're getting right in the last few months under Brunel. Ultimately its all about getting the W's, and they haven't done enough of that. They have however, only conceded 4 tries this season. England, in truth, have been fitful for the last 12-18 months, only rarely putting some impressive play together, but they have been getting the wins. That was brought to a fairly stark halt last time out, and it'll be interesting to see what sort of reaction it engenders. I suspect France will be enormously motivated for this game. Beat Les Rosbifs and the season can be considered progress (barring some calamity against Wales), but lose and it could be seen as falling further behind. I'm not convinced they can win, but they handicap does look tempting. France +8

    Wales-Italy
    Not sure yet about this game. Wales have disappointed a little this season, even allowing for injuries and Gatland has gambled (a little) by changing up his team for this game. They won't lose, but if they don't win handsomely, the last game against France will be tricky. As of now I'd marginally lean towards Wales to beat the cap as Italy often run out of steam this late in the tournament, and the high tempo game of Wales can trouble their defence particularly late in the game. I do see signs of Italian improvement though, so will reserve a final call till tomorrow or Sunday morning.
    slick likes this.
  17. traeth

    traeth Moderator

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    1,691
    Great analysis as usual doc

    I think Ireland will win tomorrow, Ireland have the strength in the pack to win.
    Scotland's poor performances away are their achilles heel.
    An early score for Ireland and I can see them overcoming that cap.

    It is difficult to see England loosing two games on the trot.
    France do perform well at home but they are disorganised presently.
    I think getting rid of Hartley will benefit England, George is a dynamic player as he showed on the Lions tour.
    Having Farrell as captain is also a plus point.
    Like you doc a positive cap for the home side could be the bet tomorrow.

    Wales have made 10 changes for Sunday's match against Italy.
    They have three Lions returning . The players that have been selected are the type of players that I like especially the backrow but whether they are a team is another matter. I think that there have been too many changes.1 - 2 - 3 have had limited time together , need to get a start before the WC ,4 - 5 I don;t think they have played together before , 6 - 8 - 7 have never played together before, Davies is due a match and has performed exceptionally these last two seasons, 12 - 13 have never played together , 10 - 12 have had a few runs together in the final minutes.
    If Italy play a similar game to Ireland and restrict our possession we will struggle to overcome that cap but if we can get enough ball I can see this match being a very high scoring one. At the moment I'm not that positive but I could easily change my mind by Sunday morning
    slick likes this.
  18. Doc

    Doc Member

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    34
    haven't had time to consider the welsh game in detail, but going to back Wales to beat the cap
  19. Doc

    Doc Member

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    34
    logic for above is largely based on Italy defence, particularly in the 10-13 area. Also Wales' attack has improved a lot in the last couple of years and with lots of fresh energy I expect this to be a very open game. Italy traditionally had a pack they could go to here, but those days are gone
  20. traeth

    traeth Moderator

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    1,691
    Congratulations to Ireland on the win and the slam is on for St Patrick's day

    the caps for this weekend
    Six Nations Matches

    12:30 Italy +17 Scotland -17

    14:45 England +1 Ireland -1

    17:00 Wales -8 France +8

    Italy v Scotland
    Italy who start well , Scotland who stuggle away from home
    Italy +7.5 @ h.t. will be my first bet of the day

    England v Ireland
    England performances have been poor after that win in Italy , but small changes could make a big difference. Wales and Scotland have shown that there are gaps in the Irish defence but to be succesful England need to be finish clinically.
    Ireland going for the slam on St Patrick's day got to be a massive omen . I hope the nerves will not get to them but winning at twickers is difficult,
    The bookies think this will be close.
    I will be great to read Doc's thoughts on this one.


    Wales v France
    The Welsh team will be named tomorrow , it will be interesting to see who will make the team , what kind of balance will be selected for the backrow , who gets the outside half slot , who plays 13 , will Liam Williams play 14 or 15 or will he be put on the "naughty seat" .
    I can't see Wales losing

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