Spacbroke Hills 3.1 - jinx thread

well its that time of the year again, the birds aint as chirpy, nights are drawing in, the girls get their fannys out for halloween and Spacebrokes ultimate laying challenge reluctantly rolls back into business.

Version 1.0, 1.1, 1.2 etc were all variations on laying the Racing Post naps.

Version 2.X was laying the cunts from the punters lounge and OLBG, they were hopeless, we made a mint, i didnt have the legs for it though.. they were betting my markets 24/7

Virgin 3.0 was inspired by james surowieckis 'the wisdom of crowds', looked good on paper but way way too much data gathering. plus it involved backing folks opinions, i really hate doing that, people are fucking retards

Version 3.1 then.. this time inspired by a far more recent trading book- 'the art of cotrarian trading' by carl futia, this is probably my favorite gambling book of the few ive read. written informally without too much city-fanboi chat, no charts, graphs or whatever, its just a series of observations about how people

???

erm... how people work the stockmarkets, top stuff.

this weekend i will be lay under 2.5 or laying over 2.5 goals in almost every english game, from the champ to the blue sq, this aint for the feint hearted theres still going to be loads of work.

that said though, the work will be easy, as im motivated to prove that the last 8 years ive spent gambling online, under the premise that its IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE FUTURE, is still the case today.


mugs, non-gamblers, fans who dont give a shoot for odds tell me the scores they think for games to start.

from that we work out the average number of goals they expect in each game.

then i work out how far from the markets view they are.

then i lay 'em under/over, whichever is the opposite of what they think itll be, with the stake being the range between what they and mr market think.

YOU CANT JINX ME THIS TIME, I'M ON YOUR SIDE UNIVERSAL SUN GODS, YOU'D BE JINXING YOURSELVES

'av it. x

thanks punter its appreciated, first bets will be up before fridays games, got 3 L2 and a blue square before the main action on saturday.

virgin 3.0 was just me being funny, sounds like version.

should take this more seriously as im expecting a 500 quidish liability at 3pm this weekend, aint a game

easiest way to do this will be to cut and paste form the spreadsheet...

errrrr

the first number is the predicted number of goals in the match, then the home team in the game im betting on and finally my stake @ odds.
If under 2.5 I'm laying UNDER 2.5
If over 2.5 I'm laying OVER 2.5

I'll colour it in....

Friday
League 2

2.29 BRISTOL R 6.04 @ 2.14
1.57 BURTON 17.11 @ 2.24
2.57 PORT VALE 3.55 @ 1.77

Blue Square

3.07 LINCOLN 12.32 @ 1.9

these are unit stakes not what im betting, what im betting is a little different as im getting better/worse prices but the ones ill list here will be the odds available at the time of looking.

burton cunts do me first day posting on here, ridiculous

-29.28.. and counting

Liabilities = -41.91
Returns inc stake = +12.93
P/L = -29.28

% P/L = -69.86%
Wins = 1/4

70 points down Mate. Looks like it might be an idea to go back to the Futia

it's the way i tell em

btw ive factored commision into those returns

70 down?

you reading tomorrows post already? ive got loads to learn from you lot

I was reading the percentage.

My joke was still great tho

yeah i laughed at it.

tomorrow im doing 43 games, a similar performance would see me more than 70 quid down.. got to try though, nobody calls me chicken

swoops if any virgins turn up here im slaughtering them to appease the Jinx gods

doesnt he play for spain

these chumps think overall that there will be 40% LESS goals than betfair does tomorrow, theyve got to be wrong

tomorrows winning bets placed, hardly any matched yet so this 300quid exposure will go up a little..

i used to be fearless, id gamble that everyday once upon a time, im shitting it having that much on tomorrow haha

CHAMPIONSHIP

1.86 BURNLEY -18.00 @ 2
2.71 COVENTRY 11.78 @ 2.18
3.07 DERBY 9.08 @ 1.82
2.21 MIDDLESBROUGH -4.29 @ 2.11
3.14 WEST HAM 12.32 @ 1.85
#DIV/0!

LEAGUE 1
2.77 BRENTFORD 3.58 @ 1.9
2.38 CHESTERFIELD -3.99 @ 2.04
2.69 EXETER 0.48 @ 1.87
2.54 HARTLEPOOL -0.33 @ 1.96
2.62 LEYTON ORIENT 1.33 @ 1.95
3.08 MK DONS 8.96 @ 1.83
2.08 ROCHDALE -11.03 @ 2
2.15 STEVENAGE -9.66 @ 2.02
2.85 TRANMERE 15.44 @ 2.22
2.77 WALSALL 0.57 @ 1.82
1.85 YEOVIL -14.50 @ 1.91
#DIV/0!

LEAGUE2
2.9 AFC WIMBLE 2.44 @ 1.8
3.2 ACCRINGTON 10.24 @ 1.86
2.3 BARNET -4.00 @ 2
3.3 CRAWLEY 12.24 @ 1.86
2.8 DAGENHAM 7.92 @ 2.08
2.9 HEREFORD 8.50 @ 2.02
2.4 MACCLESFIELD -0.54 @ 2.06
2.1 SOUTHEND -9.81 @ 1.93
2.4 TORQUAY -6.05 @ 1.85

GREEN CIRCLE
2.43 TELFORD -5.68 @ 2.1
2.64 BARROW -6.46 @ 1.74
1.86 BRAINTREE -23.68 @ 2.18
2.71 CAMBRIDGE 3.08 @ 1.92
2.21 DARLO -14.09 @ 2.18
2.21 FORREST GRN -14.92 @ 2.2
3 LUTON 4.45 @ 1.76
2.79 MANSFIELD -0.65 @ 1.78
2.43 NEWPORT 1.33 @ 1.9
2.79 WREXHAM 1.08 @ 1.82
3.21 YORK 9.54 @ 1.74

POTENTIALLY -279.7 here....​

thought it wouldve been higher in the end

alot of the - stakes there, ignore em, its a glitch on openoffice

cucking funts didnt lose today.

we might actually be 70 down now, ill need to check up on it when i get home.

bastards.

think ive just got the sheffield derby tomorrow lined up