Spain 11-13 December

Pretty much a copy and paste of my post from 2 weeks ago, just updating the necessary details:

Betis tb Las Palmas @ 3.6

Las Palmas bottom of the league, only 2 wins in 7 at home this season. Betis are 11th, but with a better away record than home (5pts from a possible 21 at home, 14 from a possible 21 away). They lost their first away game of the season, 5-0 at Real Madrid, but since then are 6 away games unbeaten.

Their last 5 aways have all been against sides currently below them, they've drawn with Granada (18th), and beat Malaga (17th), Rayo (16th), Sporting (14th) and Levante (19th). On that basis, I can't see why they should be such a big price here.

Elche tb Girona @ 5.0

From the odds Punter posted up on this week's comp, it seems Elche were priced at 6.0 earlier in the week, down to 5.0 now, but that still looks way too big to me. Two average to poor sides struggling in the bottom half of the table, Girona 16th, and with just 1 win at home from 8 attempts this season, despite having played 3 of the bottom 4 (drawing with all of them). Elche are 13th, 2pts above Girona and with a 2-2-4 away record this season.

Any result looks possible to me in this one, yet the bookies have Girona around 1.7, Elche at 5.0. Makes no sense to me, value looks to be with the away side.

Just read as well that Las Palmas are likely to be without all 4 recognised centre backs in their squad (one suspended, one recently injured, and the other 2 have been out for over 2 months and are unlikely to be available tomorrow).