The Cheltenham Festival 2015

Discussion in 'UK and Ireland Horse Racing tips' started by ONEDUNME, Feb 16, 2015.

  1. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME New Member

    Let me know if you'd prefer four daily threads instead of just the one chaps. Entirely up to you. I've created four daily threads and a general festival thread on www.betnod.com but that's because we generally like to post our individual bets every day and it's a lot less messy that way.

    The festival starts three weeks tomorrow and most bookies aren't going non-runner no bet yet on all races. About the bravest I've seen are Boylesports who seem to be doing more than most - the rest will start to catch up over the course of next weekend and most should be nrnb by Monday or Tuesday next week I reckon (with the exception of the odd race).

    It would be easy to criticise the bookies for being greedy bastards and for taking money from punters who aren't even going to get a run for their dosh if they back a horse in a race and it ends up never even making the starting post but with so many horses being entered into two or three (or more) races over the four days it must be an absolute nightmare to try to produce a book without knowing who's going to run in the race without then having to give money back for those that don't take part without the option of imposing a rule 4 to reduce the prices that people got for the ones that are going to take part.

    Day 1 Tuesday 10th March
    Race 1 Supreme Novice Hurdle

    Race 2 Arkle Trophy

    Race 3 Festival Handicap Chase

    Race 4 Champion Hurdle

    Race 5 Mares Hurdle

    Race 6 National Hunt Chase

    Race 7 Novices Handicap Chase


    Day 2 Wednesday 11th March
    Race 1 Neptune Novice Hurdle

    Race 2 RSA Chase

    Race 3 Coral Cup

    Race 4 Queen Mother Champion Chase

    Race 5 Cross Country Chase

    Race 6 Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle

    Race 7 Champion Bumper

    Day 3 Thursday 12th March
    Race 1 JT Novice Chase

    Race 2 Pertemps Final

    Race 3 Ryanair Chase

    Race 4 World Hurdle

    Race 5 Byrne Group Plate

    Race 6 Kim Muire Challenge Cup

    Day 4 Friday 13th March
    Race 1 Triumph Hurdle

    Race 2 County Hurdle

    Race 3 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

    Race 4 Cheltenham Gold Cup

    Race 5 Foxhunter Chase

    Race 6 Conditionals Handicap Hurdle

    Race 7 Grand Annual


    All our welcome to post up their thoughts and their selections. If you're reading this and you're a lurker and not a member, now is as good a time as any to join up and share your thoughts:)
     
  2. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME New Member

    News today that More of That which was fancied for the World Hurdle has burst a blood vessel after a piece of work and is unlikely to run at the festival. Annie Power would no doubt be clear favourite for the race if it had been announced that she would run but the likelihood is that she will run in the mares hurdle on Tuesday instead. A race that she is even money for (no bookie giving no runner no bet yet) a price that you'd have to be an absolute nut job to take even given that that is her most likely target.
     
  3. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME New Member

    And another JP McManus horse Gilgamboa doubtful now to line up after failing to impress at Navan at the weekend.

    JP must be down to his last 50 possible festival runners:)
     
  4. punter

    punter Member Staff Member

    OOOOH Cheltenham, bloody brilliant!

    I've got no definite's yet but the starting point is always the Champion Hurdle for me.
    How good is Faugheen, or Hurricane Fly come to that? Both have to be on the shortlist.

    At the moment i'm still siding with The New One though. I just can't forget how she recovered last year to get so close after being so badly hampered. Completely stopped in her tracks and pretty much had to re start her race from 3 hurdles in. Quite brilliant how horse and joc got back, in such a big race. Another 50yrds and they'd of won.

    The New One's last race was worrying, scraping home at Haydock but i'm putting that down to it being a fitness/prep race in heavy ground.

    Jezki was a big payer for me last season, i have to be worried about him again but with a clear run, i just think the Cheltenham Hill is made for The New One and i urge you to go watch last years race again.

    In the National Hunt Chase, if she runs i'll be on Theatre Queen. Local owners and a big price @ 66/1.
     
  5. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME New Member

    Speaking of The New One, I'll be keeping a close eye on what rides Sam Twiston-Davies gets Punter with a view to backing him for top jock (two bets - one without Ruby Walsh and one outright, you never know, he could break his leg in race one God forbid).
     
  6. beamer

    beamer Member Staff Member

    The gimmicks these bookies put on for Cheltenham nowadays makes a few punters wait with any early bets.

    An injury to one of the Mullins Championship horses could see some changes in engagements and my sensible head says lay the Day 1 treble on them, but I can't see any of the 3 getting turnover even though they are all way too short.

    The last race on day 1 has some appeal but only three books priced up with very little on offer.
     
  7. punter

    punter Member Staff Member

    Anybody taken a few small stakes on big priced outsiders yet?

    I've backed a few, smallest of stakes. Two i'll mention at big odds..

    Bertimont in the Champion Hurdle. I know he cant win it, cant come 2nd either, but i cant rule out 3rd. I'm expecting a good run from him. he's been on the upgrade on the last 4 races. There's more to come from him and the Skelton's shouldn't be underestimated at Cheltenham. 100/1 @ Bet Victor. At 1/4 the odds it's a 25/1 shot to finish 3rd. Will need luck in running and ideal conditions though.

    Champagne Fever @ 164 for The Gold Cup. The least likely race to run in from the 3 he's entered in, according to the betting.

    5/1 for the Queen Mother, i think he's more than a two miler these days, it's no longer his ideal trip imo. I wouldn't fancy him over this trip and up against Sacre and Dodging Bullets.

    10/1 for The Ryanair. This would be more realistic at 2M5F.

    Currently 270 on Betdaq to win the Gold Cup suggests he's highly unlikely to run. Not all bookies are pricing him up even. But he still holds an entry so i've chanced the smallest of stakes.
    He didn't quite see the 3 mile out in the King George on boxing day, finishing 10L behind S.Conti. But that was only his 2nd run of the season to Cont's 3rd. He's fitter for two more runs since and has an excellent record at Cheltenham.
     
  8. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME New Member

    Bet365 now going non runner no bet on all races
     
  9. punter

    punter Member Staff Member

    Small fantasy league going here if anybody's interested..

    https://fantasyracing.telegraph.co.uk/cheltenham/league/view/8025643

    League Name: Malvern
    PIN: 8025643


    Free to join, invite your mates, good luck.


    Prizes

    The Champion
    The owner of the highest-scoring Fantasy Cheltenham Stable at the end of the Festival will win the first prize of £1,000 cash

    Runners up
    The stable owners finishing in 2nd-10th will also receive a cash prize;
    2nd: £250
    3rd: £150
    4th: £100
    5th-10th £50

    Facebook and Twitter League Prizes
    The Owners whose stables top the Facebook and Twitter public leagues at the end of the Festival will each receive £50.
    League details are as follows:
    FACEBOOK LEAGUE (PIN: 8000001)
    TWITTER LEAGUE (PIN: 8000002)
     
  10. punter

    punter Member Staff Member

    I think i'm sorted for day one now. Some are on, some to be added on the day

    Race 1 Supreme Novice Hurdle

    I'm on a small e.w.bet with QEWY @ 16


    Race 2 Arkle Trophy

    No bet as yet and the odds on fav looks to have this. I'll probably have a small e.w bet on THREE KINGDOMS @ around 20/1


    Race 3 Festival Handicap Chase

    No bet as yet but a mate went down to Cheltenham tonight for one of those group discussion thingy's and the panel were all in favour of NED STARK. At around 8/1 i'll probably end up on that.


    Race 4 Champion Hurdle

    If HURRICANE FLY finishes in the 1st three, i'll run bollock naked round the block singing "Glory glory Man utd".
    Not happening, unplaced and retired is my prediction.

    It's between FAUGHEEN, THE NEW ONE and JEZKI imo. Though i wont rule out ARTIC FIRE, KITTEN ROCK, or even BERTIMONT getting involved at the finish. I've a medium e.w bet on THE NEW ONE @ 3/1 and a small e.w bet on BERTIMONT @ 100/1


    Race 5 Mares Hurdle

    I think ANNIE POWER will get turned over by stable mate GLENS MELODY. I'm holding out fo 5/1 for an e.w bet but i'll take whatever i can on the day. I'm quite keen on this bet.


    Race 6 National Hunt Chase

    This is all about the local horse for me. We're all on THEATRE QUEEN down this way. Local bookies will be shitting in their pants if TQ is their abouts at the finish. I've got some 84 on the exchanges, 66/1 and 50/1 e.w bets. Nothing big but enough to keep me drunk till after easter. #TeamTheatreQueen


    Race 7 Neptune Novices Handicap


    I've not taken anything yet but if he runs i'll probably side with NICHOLS CANYON and another selection closer the race.
     
  11. beamer

    beamer Member Staff Member

    I'm going to be very boring.

    Faugeen and Douvan to go with a couple from Southwell/ Wolver for an acca.

    Race 7 Neptune Novices Handicap

    Horizontal Speed @ 16/1
    Generous Ransom @ 9/1

    Possibly will be a decent price on account last win was a 4 runner event, but Horizontal Speed previous run when 2nd looks decent form behind Saphir De Rhue, who could be anything over jumps but rated 160 over hurdles.

    The 10 length 3th is now rated 3lb higher than HS.

    Generous Ransom is a short price but last win looks very strong, highly regarded by the stable and feel he wants better ground which he is sure to get on Tuesday.
     

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