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The horse racing trixie bet

Discussion in 'The Glory Hole' started by ONEDUNME, Aug 27, 2013.

  1. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    12,545
    Inspired by Punter's Trixie thread (to be found here)...

    http://www.betnod.com/threads/the-trixie-bet.2483/

    ...I'm going to do a few horse racing trixie bets, the first of which will be at Carlisle tomorrow. I hadn't planned it this way but all three are around the 5/2 mark. The annoying thing is that three different bookies currently have the best price on each of them and so I'm forced to leave my bets until tomorrow to put them on.

    It actually gives me a good excuse to enlighten those who have never thought about this before but, rather than put a trixie on with one bookie, it would, more often than not, (if you have the time and inclination and if the races aren't too close together time-wise) pay to place the bets separately and take advantage of whichever bookie had the best price at the time.
    The methodology is pretty obvious but I'll use tomorrow's "trixie" bet as a live example.

    A trixie bet is three doubles and a treble to the same stakes, so you would make three selections and the stakes would be as follows:

    £5 on the double, selection A and selection B
    £5 double A and C
    £5 double B and C
    £5 treble A B and C

    Now, personally, I've never understood why anyone would want to put the same stake on the treble as they have on the doubles, given that there is obviously less chance of it winning and, if it does, you already have a decent profit with your three doubles anyway. I'd much rather split my stakes into 3 x £6 doubles and a £2 treble in the knowledge that a steady supply of doubles will bring in a steady profit rather than relying on hitting the treble (but that's just me).

    Anyway, supposing we were putting on the level stake £5 trixie, and race A is off at 2pm, B at 3pm and C at 4pm, the initial bets would have to be placed as follows.

    Race A
    £5 on the treble
    £5 on double A and B
    £5 on double A and C
    So a total of £15 needs to be staked on horse A, plus £5 on horse B (or a £5 double if one individual bookie happens to be offering the best odds available on both).

    If horse A fails, then it's just a matter of piling any winnings from horse B onto the third horse in the 4 oclock race but the other advantage of doing your bet this way is that you could choose to take some of your money back if horse A or B happened to win.

    If horse A wins, a third of your returns go onto horse C and two thirds go onto horse B (1/3 for the double and 1/3 for the treble). Providing you don't want to withdraw a little bit first of course.

    If horse B wins, you've dragged your double and you put the other half of your winnings onto horse C.

    Simples (I hope - I've been watching the footy so I hope that makes sense)
  2. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    12,545
    Anyway, tomorrow's bet (to keep it simple, I'll use the 5/2 odds (providing there are no non-runners, in which case, I'll use SP for simplicity)

    330 Carlisle Silver Samba
    400 Tellovoi
    430 Carl Absent Amy

    5pt trixie (20pts staked).

    If the first horse loses, I'll place a 6pt single bet on the 400 horse to get my stake back, bumping my stakes up to 26 pts.
  3. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    8,806
    As a fellow Trixie lover, i'm looking forward to this.

    I totally understand this as it's a horse Trixie, odds will generally big bigger than a football one and doubles will prove profitable anyway.

    I've just done some sums based on you saying 3 lots of odds at 5/2.

    A - 5pt Trixie with all 3 winning would return 378.13pts
    B - 3 x 6pt doubles and a 2pt treble would return 306.25pts

    If just two win you gain 12.25 pts more by going with B.
    Six of those just two ups would cover what you would lose on your treble difference (approx. 72pts).

    It all comes down to strike rates and lady luck really, but I do think B is probably the sensible theory, mainly based on the fact that it's horse racing and there is a lot more probability for things to go wrong. Where as in football 1X2 bets, even a moron has a 1 in 27 chance of landing a treble.

    I like the way you are going about staking to obtain the very best prices too, and being able to have the option of a single for stakes back on the 2nd horse
    Good luck ODM :thumb
  4. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    12,545
    Thanks mate. Im hoping to add one a day at least while there are a lot of meetings on.
  5. traeth

    traeth Moderator

    Messages:
    2,034
    good luck with this ODM

    I'm also a trixie fan

    I understand your thinking but as I bet on football and rugby , it is the occasional treble that keeps my head above water.

    If you bet on three evens one double will cover the bet
    i.e 10 point trixie = 40 point
    1 double up = return of 40 points
    3 doubles up= 120 points
    1 treble = 80 points

    If you have 3 x 6/4 selections
    1 double up = return of 62.5 points
    3 doubles up = 187 points
    1 treble = 156 points

    If you have 3 x 2/1 selections
    1 double up = return of 90 points
    3 doubles up = 270 points
    1 treble = 270 points

    The treble returns more than the three doubles when the prices are above 2/1. Which is my logic for doing the trixie insted of 3 cossed doubles and a smaller stake treble. Your thinking makes sense when backing horses.

    I'm in a small betting syndicate with two of my drinking mates , it is mainly a fun thing with a lot of banter if we pick a loser , but this trixie football bet is ideal for that . Usually it is piss taking but the occasional treble gives a good return. We share out the winnings before christmas , in the last three years we've had two in profit.

    p.s. I hope my maths is right as I use it for my retort when I'm subjected to abuse , I'm trying to baffle them with the figures , only works with one of them.
  6. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    12,545
    Seems the old Trixie is more common than I had imagined. Are you up or down on the year so far Traeth?

    I'm down 26 points on yesterday's donkeys but luckily I have plenty more donkeys up my sleeve (bet u won't hear that said anywhere else this week unless you happen to be going to some sort if Wizzards convention).

    All at Stratford this aft'

    220 Refer (plus a 10pt win bet) 2/1
    320 Tri Nations 6/1 outsider of five and drifting
    350 Gavriche Gaugin - 3/1
    fucked up the spelling of the last one but its plain enough to make sense.

    5pt trixie plus 10single - 30pts staked today, 56 in total
  7. traeth

    traeth Moderator

    Messages:
    2,034
    we spend £30 every weekend , £10 each , so far we are £200 in profit- I think we are in week 32 or 33

    if we end up with no profit we'll get a £500 Christmas box

    at the moment I'm the "worst" tipster with 15 of my picks losing but my winners have been "better" priced , that's why I try to baffle my mates with maths but they seem to ignore it and stick to the simple number of losers
    Punter likes this.
  8. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    12,545

    Nice one, but I'd be concerned about drinking with people who can't understand that how much profit your horse makes is more important than how many winners you pick.:lol Do you keep a tally of what the singles returns would be from your winners compared to theirs? Surely anyone would be able to see the logic in that. Focusing on trying to pick winners at any price encourages people to just go for favourites in my experience.

    I've been part of a similar pub set up as yourself and I know what your frustration will be like:lol. I've got a mate who can work out dart scores almost before the tip hits the board but who insists on adding the values of the balls up to see how many points are left when we are down to the colours on a snooker table:lol. It drives me FUCKING MENTAL.
  9. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    12,545
    Forgot to mention that Refer won at 2/1 today to return the day's stakes. 26pts down after two attempts.
    Punter likes this.
  10. traeth

    traeth Moderator

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    2,034
    the syndicate is made up of potato man , egg man and myself
    potato man had the idea , is a Liverpool fan ,which means he selects Liverpool often and does not understand "value"
    egg man is the top tipster and the treasurer

    potato man and egg man do have computers but they seem to believe that computers should be used for following Liverpool website , watching porn [ egg man's favourite is grannies shag teens] :eek: and watching "Sharp" on youtube. I've tried my best to explain forum life to them but this is beyond their computer literacy skills . This is what I'm working with but we do make a profit , have some good banter on Fridays and Sundays.
    It is my poor selection record that is letting me down and giving them fuel to ignore "my logic" , if I'm losing the argument I have to retort to " you headhunted me" but this is wearing thin now . It is my years dealing with these two that has made me tolerant of yorkie :)
    Kegman and Punter like this.
  11. Punter

    Punter Moderator

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    8,806
    :lol Good craic traeth
  12. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    Fridays bets. Only using the £6 single bet on the last one if the other 2 have both lost, otherwise 15 pts staked

    230 Chester snow powder 11/4
    240 thirsk Emef Diamond 7/4
    310 thirsk Song of Roland 5/2.

    I'd be pretty confident of a winne or two from these to be honest so if anyone was tempted to back them in singles , I wouldn't put them off -I'd also add Enobled in the 355 race at 7/2. Strong fav to overcome but if it beats that it probably wins.
  13. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    12,545
    Two winners today at 15/8 and 11/4. Will update the figures later but I'm going to have to do the next one in the way I described above, as I only have one selection so far and it's off in five minutes.

    Mandy's Boy 4/1 15pts staked 555 thirsk
    Punter likes this.
  14. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    12,545
    Beaten in a photograph and traded at 1.4 in running:frown. C'est la vie.
  15. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    12,545
    615 Salisbury Lady Marl 13/2
  16. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    12,545
    That's a 5pt win to lose 20 in total in today's 2nd trixie
  17. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    12,545
    No good. One more for tonight

    700 southwell Picalily 3/1
    715 salisbury Royal Signaller 7/1
    730 southwell sixties queen 4/1

    Adding 5pt single on the 700 horse just in case it's the only winner. 25 pts staked
  18. Punter

    Punter Moderator

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    8,806
    Well done earlier ODM, warming up nicely :thumb Good luck tonight.
  19. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    12,545
    700 Pissed it.
  20. slick

    slick Administrator

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    15,608
    Top man, well done.

    Is something wrong with the forum clock as ODM seems to be posting his picks after the off.:wasnme

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