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Trying Something Out ..

Discussion in 'Horse Racing & Greyhound Tips' started by Sean, Aug 22, 2022.

  1. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    2,208
    Disappointed with yesterdays tbh , when i see Cheeky Maxi had been backed in i was getting a bit excited , backed into 6/1 in the end and could only manage 8th .. oh well , onwards and upwards (cant go any further downwards lets be honest)
  2. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    2,208
    Friday 30th December

    6.00 Wolverhampton - Temporize 10/1 (365) - Base Note 13/8 (Hills,Lads,Coral,BFred)
    Probably not the best race to try and find the winner in as to be honest a case could be made for all six runners but two stood out for me , so hopefully i've got it right with at least one of them. First one is bottomweight TEMPORIZE who is better than his recent figures show imho , was 12th of 13 last time out at Kempton , but did have a crap draw to overcome and was a decent third over the same CD on his penultimate run. I think this drop down in trip will help , and he's one from one over todays CD , it caught my eye that when running over todays distance his figures are - 1,1,3 .. so im hoping that the return to 1m4f will help him put his best foot forward , and the same with the return to this course , where he registered his first win. Has a decent enough draw i think , and im hoping he can go close here. The fact that Mark Johnston has only sent this one here this evening caught my eye , has a 23% strike rate over the past 21 days and when he's sent them to this course this season hes amassed a 22.2% strike rate along with a profit of +£27.17 . Franny Norton is the man booked for the steering job and he's two from four aboard the horse to date , been riding well with a 38% SR in the past 3 weeks and he too has done well at Wolverhampton this term with a 22.3% strike rate and a +£15.87 profit to boot. When trainer and jockey have teamed up over the past 3 weeks theyve notched up a 44% strike rate. To me , everything looks right for a decent run here , and with first time cheekpieces added i can see him going well. BASE NOTE is the other one i like the look of , hard to fault really , 3 wins from 8 runs this year and thumped the opposition by 4 1/2 lengths last time out over todays CD , and in all honesty ot could of been further. Never run a bad race here with two wins from two runs over CD , and two wins and two places from four outings here overall. Jockey Harry Burns in the plate and hes here for one ride , has a 16% strike rate here at Wolverhampton , unplaced on his only ride on the horse , but if hes good enough for the trainer hes good enough for me. Talking of the trainer , anything Simon Crisford sends here has to be respected imo , and when its his only runner of the day maybe more so ! 30% strike rate in the past 3 weeks , and when running his horses here this term he has a 31.2% strike rate , so as i say , anything he sends here warrants a second look. If hes in the same sort of form as when last seen hes gotta go close this evening.

    Last edited: Dec 29, 2022
  3. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    2,208
  4. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    2,208
    Well Base Note done by a head , which kinda sums up this month to be honest .. nowt for tomorrow , gonna wait until the new year now .. new year , new start and all that .. happy new year (and a profitable one to all on here)
  5. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,208
    September .. Bets 16 .. Won 4 .. EP +20.80 / SP +7.25
    October
    ... Bets 18 .. Won 2 .. EP +9.00 / SP -5.50
    November ... Bets 15 .. Won 5 .. EP +26.25 ./ SP +11.08
    December
    .. Bets 27 .. Won 2 .. EP -14.50 / SP -21.20

    TOTALS .. Bets 76 .. Won 13 .. EP +41.55 / SP -8.37
  6. Punter

    Punter Moderator

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    8,806
    Nice work Sean, good stuff. Keep em coming. Happy New Year :beer
    Sean likes this.
  7. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    12,546

    Ditto and Ditto
    Sean likes this.
  8. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    2,208
    Sunday 1st January

    1.55 Cheltenham - Happygolucky 10/1 (365)
    Open looking race where a whole host of runners look to hold chances but HAPPYGOLUCKY stands out for me at what i consider to be a reasonable price. Comes here on the back of a solid effort when third in the Rehearsal at Newcastle , its even more of an impressive comeback when you take into consideration he'd been off for almost 600 days prior to that run. And with that outing under his saddle i'm hoping that he's blown the cobwebs away and that he's in tip top condition for this. Considering his age he seems very low milage to me , and also very consistent and reliable , solid sort of horse who can be relied upon to run his race . never having been out of the first four in his career. Has had 6 chase races to date winning two of them , placing in three and third in the other. Ground conditions dont worry me as he's won on soft and good - soft. Has placed on only run over todays CD , and has never been unplaced here at the course , having won once and placed three times in his four outings here. Was second to Vintage Clouds in the Ultima at the Festival in 2021 so knows his way round here and seems to run well. Kim Bailey is a trainer i respect and he can ready one when he too imho and the fact that he's only brought this one to the meeting stood out for me. David Bass in the hot seat and he seems to get on with the horse with 4 wins and 3 places from his 9 rides aboard him. As i said at the start this is an open looking race but i am more than happy to have happygolucky onside.
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2022
  9. SAMOAN

    SAMOAN Moderator

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    9,163
    On Happygolucky at 12's. Also added Coconut Splash at 8's and War Lord at 14's for the forecast / tricast.
    Sean likes this.
  10. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    2,208
  11. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    2,208
    Not the way i wanted to start the new year but got a run for the money , was up there but faded late on .. onwards and upwards
  12. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    2,208
    Running Total

    Happygolucky 10/1 Lost

    Bets 1 .. Won .. EP -1.00 / SP -1.00
  13. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    2,208
    Tuesday 3rd January

    5.00 Wolverhampton - Mafia Power 9/1 (365)
    Like the look of MAFIA POWER in this one , put him up last month and he came third , and comes into this in fine form , since coming back from a break he's - 1,2,2,3,3 and his last four runs have come since he's gone to Michael Applebys yard , and i feel that given his recent form its not going to be long before he gets his in front for his new yard. Meets his latest conquerer here (Tiger Beetle) who beat him by a length but the selection did find trouble in running so for me its entirely possible that he can reverse that form here this evening. Horse has never been unplaced over todays CD with a win and three places from four runs. Taylor Fisher rode him for the first time last time and the pair are re united here , takes off a helpful 5lb , and is one of the better claimers doing the rounds imho (as i've said before) , has a 13% strike rate over the past there weeks. Trainer Archie Watson brings just this one to the meeting and has a 19% strike rate over the past fortnight and has a 16% SR overall here. A few in this could prove troublesome but the 9/1 on offer was just to big to pass up given his recent form imo.

    7.30 Wolverhampton - Nacho 3/1 (365) - Embla 11/2 (Hills,Lads,Coral,BFred)
    A couple of runners catch my eye in this classified stakes , first up is EMBLA who comes into this on the back of a decent win over CD , she just hung on by a neck after making all which showed her grit and determination to gain that all important win , and now she's finally got her head in front after 18 runs she could well get to used to that winning feeling and go in again. She runs off just 1lb higher than last time out and i think shes worth a pop at the price. Luke Morris gets the leg up which isnt a bad thing , has a 17% strike rate over the past two weeks , and has a 12% strike rate at Wolverhampton overall. Trainer Alan Brown runs just this one tonight , and i think she can go well. The other one i like is NACHO , whose three career wins have all come over todays CD , three wins and five places from 15 runs over tonights CD so obviously knows his way round here and on the whole doesnt too bad. Hasnt won for a while but was a very solid third over CD last time and to me it looks as though hes going to win sooner rather than later. Mark Winn on board and hes another claimer i like tbh , has a 17% strike rate over the past two weeks and with Donald McCain sending just the one to the meeting , all things point to a decent showing for me.
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2023
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  14. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    slick likes this.
  15. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    Running Total / January

    Happygolucky 10/1 Lost
    Mafia Power 9/1 :thumb 1st 9/2
    Embla 3/1 Lost
    Nacho 11/2 Lost

    Bets 4 .. Won 1 .. EP +6.00 / SP +1.50
    Punter likes this.
  16. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    missed the cunt. prices where all over the place when i looked last night . passed up the 9/1 with a view to a possible drift and maybe 4 places. knobhead

    you still backing to win Seen ?
  17. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    Yep , win only
    ONEDUNME likes this.
  18. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    2,208
    Saturday 7th January

    3.00 Sandown - Chambard 25/1 (365) - Sir Ivan 12/1 (Lads,BFred)
    A couple of runners in this veterans series final peak my interest at decent prices , the first one is CHAMBARD who had a great season last term ending it on a high with winning the Kim Muir at Cheltenham and that run co incided with 7lb claimer Lucy Turner taking over the reins - 1,2,2,1,1,1 .. Didnt show much on return to action last time out after a 256 day lay off when pulled up , but im hoping that spin out has helped to blow the cobwebs away and that his true colours will shine through here this afternoon as he's definatley capable of a better showing than that. Venetia Williams runs two in this (the other one being Coo Star Sivola partnered by Charlie Deutsch) and she's as shrewd as they come and i honestly cant see her running anything that she honestly doesnt think has a chance , has a 16% SR over the past 21 days and a 25% SR when sending her runners to Sandown this season. Lucy Turner in the plate and as mentioned earlier takes off a valuable 7lb and seems to have struck up a solid partnership with the old boy , with the last time run being the only time the pair have been outside the first two home. I think Chambard can put that lesser effort behind him here and if on song imho he rates a major threat and can go close. The other one i like is SIR IVAN , whose been running well enough without winning , last win came back in March 2021 but as i say he's been there or thereabouts in the main since - 3,4,4,3,PU,3,3 .. This season pair of thirds have a solid enough look about them and i cant see why he shouldnt run his race again and be in the shake up. He certainly knows all about this race as he's been third in it in its last two renewals and im hoping that he can go two better here today. I know that he wont be improving at his age but the fact he's been consistently running well , thats he's placed twice in this race and that he's won off higher than todays mark all lead me to believe he can run a good solid race. Harry Fry (also runs Bermeo in this) has been amongst the winners lately with a 25% strike rate over the past month and a 17.5% SR when sending them here overall. The fact that usual pilot Lorcan Murtagh partners the horse also caught my eye , comes here for just this one ride , and despite only winning once on the horse in 8 rides he has placed in 6 others. So the fact that the pair have only been unplaced once in those 8 runs gives me more confidence as well. Been riding well of late with a 28.6% strike rate over the past month and when he and Harry Fry have paired up in the past 21 days they come away with a 37% strike rate. An open looking race as you'd expect but i think the selections are more than capable on their day and at the prices i think they're worth a go.

    7.30 Kempton - Kaboo 12/1 (Lads,BFred,Coral) - Tyger Bay 4/1 (365)
    I like the look of two in this , firstly bottom weight TYGER BAY who comes into this on the hunt for a three timer and for me looks perfectly capable of achieving it. Only won by a head and then a nose last time out but has shown grit and determination to hang on in those pair of races and i'm happy enough to have him onside this evening. Knows his way round here having won 4 and placed in a further 4 races over todays CD. Trainer sends just this one to the meeting and he has a 33% strike rate in the past three weeks and has a 14% strike rate when sending his runners here overall. William Carver won on the horse last time out and is re united with him here on his sole ride of the meeting. He has been in decent form with a 50% strike rate over the past fortnight and when the trainer and jockey have teamed up over the past three weeks they've got a 100% SR. All things considered i think he can go close and i think that the 4/1 could well be a nice price come the off (altho i could be wrong about that lol). KABOO is the other one i like the look of , one of a couple of runners for K Burke , hasnt been in the best of form admittedly and could bomb but is 1/1 over todays CD and Clifford Lee in the saddle caught my eye , he's 3 from 7 on the horse , and has been riding well lately with a 31% strike rate in the past two weeks and when he's teamed up with the trainer they've knocked out a 13% strike rate over the past 3 weeks. Trainer has an 18% SR over the past fortnight and sends just the two entered into this race this evening. At the price i think he's worth a go , i've seen worse 12/1 pokes.
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2023
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  19. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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  20. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    Running Total / January UPDATE AFTER LAST RACE

    Happygolucky 10/1 Lost
    Mafia Power 9/1 :thumb 1st 9/2
    Embla 3/1 Lost
    Nacho 11/2 Lost
    Chambard 25/1 Lost
    Sir Ivan 12/1 Lost
    Kaboo 12/1 Lost
    Tyger Bay 4/1 Lost (2nd)

    Bets 8 .. Won 1 .. EP +2.00 / SP -2.50
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2023

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