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Trying Something Out ..

Discussion in 'Horse Racing & Greyhound Tips' started by Sean, Aug 22, 2022.

  1. Sean

    Sean Active Member

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    512
    Sunday 8th January

    1.10 Chepstow - Progressive 17/2 (Lads,Coral.BFred) - Sarceaux 10/1 (365)
    Couple in this race stand out for me , firstly SARCEAUX who was second in the race last year , generally speaking always seems to run her race and is thereabouts more often than not. Fourth of six lto , but i can excuse that coming back from a 219 day lay off , probably needed it and im hoping that better can be expected today. Certainly wont mind the going as her best form seems to have come on soft , good - soft and even heavy doesnt seem to be a hinderance (was heavy in the race last year when she was 2nd). Jockey Jamie Brace gets the ride and he rode her last time out when 4th , has a 28.6% strike rate in the past month and comes here for just this one ride whilst trainer Alexandra Dunn also comes here just for this one , not been in the best of form lately admittedly , but the winners have to start somewhere and im hoping that Sarceaux is that one ! The other one i like is PROGRESSIVE whose another one whose on the premises more often than not , fourth last time when making debut for new yard (previously with Nicky Henderson) , that was a fair enough effort i think and hopefully she can improve on that today. Is one from one over CD , and is another who shouldnt mind the going as she's run well enough on soft and won on heavy a couple of years ago. Trainer has an 18% strike rate in past fortnight , jockey here for the one ride but dont know alot about him tbh other than he takes 7lb off her back which is always handy. Hopefully can go close.

    3.40 Chepstow - Present Value 11/1 (Hills,Lads,Coral,BFred)
    PRESENT VALUE catches my eye in this , comes into this below his last winning mark and the fact that he wears first time blinkers interest me , hopefully they can work the oracle. One from one over todays CD , and shouldnt mind the conditions. Trainer Jamie Snowden sends just this one to the meeting and hes been in good form lately with a 22% strike rate over the past 2 weeks , and has a 15% SR overall when sending them to Chepstow. Gavin Sheehan has ridden the horse twice resulting in two fourth places , and hes on board again today , and like the trainer , hes beeen in decent form with a 24% strike rate. When he comes to Chepstow he has a 22.2% strike rate but this season that rises dramatically to 42.9% .The trainer and jockey have teamed up to good effect over the past 3 weeks with a 26% SR. A few look as though theyre capable of taking a hand in this , but i think that Present Value represents a bit of value and for me everything points to a decent run being on the cards.

    3.30 Southwell - Trusty Rusty 5/2 (365) - Jeans Maite 9/2 (Hills,Lads,Coral,BFred)
    A couple in the finale at Shuvvel make the grade as far as im concerned , first up is last time out winner TRUSTY RUSTY who represents the in form pair of A Carroll and C Lee. She was having her first run here lto and seemed to enjoy the experience , winning a shade cosily by a length and a quarter and if in the same frame of mind i think she could well follow up despite a 5lb rise. Clifford Lee was in the plate for the first time lto and is in the saddle again today , riding well lately with a 20% strike rate over the past month and an eyecatching +£50.94 profit to boot. Trainer A Carroll has a more than respectable 18% strike rate over the past two weeks and when they've teamed up in the past three weeks they've managed to attain a 31% strike rate. Should go close i think. The other one i like is JEANS MAITE who won over CD on her penultimate start and was a decent enough 4th here lto , again over todays CD. I'll be very surprised if she cant go close here given that lto run was off a career high mark and she comes here today off a 1lb lower mark. Lewis Edmunds gets the ride and he has 5 wins and 4 places from his 20 outings on her , trainer been amongst the winners with a 23.1% SR in the past month and sends just this one to the meeting , can go close.
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2023
  2. Sean

    Sean Active Member

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    512
  3. Sean

    Sean Active Member

    Messages:
    512
    Running Total / January UPDATE AFTER LAST RACE

    Happygolucky 10/1 Lost
    Mafia Power 9/1 :thumb 1st 9/2
    Embla 3/1 Lost
    Nacho 11/2 Lost
    Chambard 25/1 Lost
    Sir Ivan 12/1 Lost
    Kaboo 12/1 Lost
    Tyger Bay 4/1 Lost (2nd)
    Progressive 17/2 Lost (2nd)
    Sarceaux 10/1 Lost
    Present Value 11/1 Lost
    Trusty Rusty 5/2 Lost
    Jeans Maite 9/2 Lost

    Bets 13 .. Won 1 .. EP -3.00 / SP -7.50
  4. Sean

    Sean Active Member

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    512
    Disappointed with todays gotta be honest , especially Trusty Rusty and Jeans Maite , really thought one of them was the winner of that race .. overall still doing okay and its a long haul game but note to self .. Must do better ! (Before ODM says it :wasnme)
    ONEDUNME likes this.
  5. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    12,366
    Nothing for tomorrow mate?
    Sean likes this.
  6. Sean

    Sean Active Member

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    512
    No , nowt for Monday
    ONEDUNME likes this.
  7. Sean

    Sean Active Member

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    512
    Tuesday 10th January

    3.15 Exeter - Raddon Top 4/1 (365)
    The horse that stands out to me in this is the consistent RADDON TOP who rarely runs a bad race looking through his form figures , the last time he was outside the first three was back in December 2021 - 1,1,1,3,2,2,3,3 the last three of his runs have come after a lay off and was third last time on his chase debut , that was a decent enough effort and im sure he'll improve on that run getting in here from the same mark. That last time run came over todays CD and i think its interesting that he returns here given his good record at Exeter - Three wins and two places from six runs. Obviously has a liking for the course and will be no surprise to see him go well given his current form and his course form. Trainer sends just this one out today and jockey James Davies also here for the one ride , three wins and a place from his 6 rides on the horse. Should go well and i'll be surprised if he cant go close.

    6.30 Southwell - Wadacre Grace 9/2 (Hills)
    Im liking the chances of WADACRE GRACE in this one , has been knocking on the door in her last three races , just lost out last time when failing to hang on to go down by a neck , was second on her only run over CD , being beaten by the re opposing Miss Britain (think she can turn that form around) , Charlie Johnston sends just this down from North Yorkshire and he has a 29% strike rate in the past two weeks. Whilst jockey Frannie Norton takes the ride and hes ridden the horse the last twice giving him a win and 3 places from his 5 rides aboard the horse. Has a 25% strike rate over the past fortnight and i think shes gonna go close this evening. Obviously has the fave to beat , Albion Princess , but im fairly confident she can do this (he says ...)
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2023
    ONEDUNME likes this.
  8. Sean

    Sean Active Member

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    512
  9. Sean

    Sean Active Member

    Messages:
    512
    Happygolucky 10/1 Lost
    Mafia Power 9/1 :thumb 1st 9/2
    Embla 3/1 Lost
    Nacho 11/2 Lost
    Chambard 25/1 Lost
    Sir Ivan 12/1 Lost
    Kaboo 12/1 Lost
    Tyger Bay 4/1 Lost (2nd)
    Progressive 17/2 Lost (2nd)
    Sarceaux 10/1 Lost
    Present Value 11/1 Lost
    Trusty Rusty 5/2 Lost
    Jeans Maite 9/2 Lost
    Raddon Top 9/2 :thumb 1st 3/1
    Wadacre Grace 9/2 Lost (2nd)

    Bets 15 .. Won 2 .. EP +0.50 / SP -5.50
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2023
  10. Sean

    Sean Active Member

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    512
    Saturday 14th January

    1.45 Lingfield - Silky Wilkie 3/1 (Generally) - Tyger Bay 9/2 (365)
    Two for me in this class 2 handicap , a couple of others could potentially spoil the party but im happy enough with the two i've gone for .. firstly , SILKY WILKIE whose been running well without actually winning but i think that that first all weather win is going to happen sooner rather than later if recent results are anything to go by. He's placed on his only run over CD and that came last time out when beaten a nose by the re opposing Tyger Bay , looks to have a good berth today and i'm sure that hes going to go close once again. Trainer K Burke sends just this one to Leafy which makes him the longest traveller of the meeting and i cant see the trainer sending him all the way here on a sight seeing trip if im being honest. Has a 12% strike rate over the past three weeks , and a respectable enough 13% overall at the course. Sam Fielden is in the plate and he too comes for just this one , has ridden the horse 8 times winning twice and placing in a further three , and takes off a handy 7lb which always helps in my book. When the trainer and jockey have paired up in the last 21 days they've come away with a 25% strike rate , should go well and be on the premises once again. The other one i like is TYGER BAY , who as i mentioned above beat Silky Wilkie by a nose in SWs last race .. Has run again since then , being beaten 1/2 length into second by Kiwano at Kempton a week ago. Has been in tremendous form of late , since October '22 he has figures of - 3,3,1,1,2 .. both those wins came over todays CD and overall he's 3 from 4 over this CD , so every reason to think that he can go well again today as far as i'm concerned. Conrad Allen been amongst the winners lately with a 25% strike rate over the past coupla weeks and he sends just Tyger Bay out today. Jockey Aiden Keeley in the hot seat for the first time and though he hasnt ridden many winners lately hes been on the premises more often than not so hopefully he can claim an overdue winner. Should continue in form and be bang there.
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2023
    slick and Punter like this.
  11. Sean

    Sean Active Member

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    512
  12. Sean

    Sean Active Member

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    512
    Happygolucky 10/1 Lost
    Mafia Power 9/1 :thumb 1st 9/2
    Embla 3/1 Lost
    Nacho 11/2 Lost
    Chambard 25/1 Lost
    Sir Ivan 12/1 Lost
    Kaboo 12/1 Lost
    Tyger Bay 4/1 Lost (2nd)
    Progressive 17/2 Lost (2nd)
    Sarceaux 10/1 Lost
    Present Value 11/1 Lost
    Trusty Rusty 5/2 Lost
    Jeans Maite 9/2 Lost
    Raddon Top 9/2 :thumb 1st 3/1
    Wadacre Grace 9/2 Lost (2nd)
    Silky Wilkie 3/1 Lost (2nd)
    Tyger Bay 9/2 Lost (3rd)

    Bets 17 .. Won 2 .. EP -1.50 / SP -7.50
    slick likes this.
  13. Sean

    Sean Active Member

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    512
    Saturday 21st January

    11.55 Lingfield - Dance To Paris 9/1 (365,Hills) - Smith 6/1 (365.Hills,Coral,Lads,BFred)
    A couple in the opener at Leafy Lingfield catch my eye , and i think both could give the favourite something to think about if they're on song. First up is DANCE TO PARIS whose two from two over CD and though she hasnt been in sparkling form of late she does come into this 2lb lower than her last win over CD back in July '22. Which to my mind would have to give her a chance here as well as the fact that shes dropping from a class 2 to a class 5 today. Doesnt look badly drawn and the fact that Lucy Wadham sends just this one to the course stood out for me , been amongst the winners with a 22% strike rate in the past two weeks, jockey Jack Mitchell has only been unplaced once in five rides on the horse (one win and three places) and he's enjoying a bit of a purple patch at the moment with a 30.3% strike rate in the past month. If at her best i think she can go close. The other one i like is SMITH who seems to love it here at Leafy and is somewhat of a course specialist imo , with 5 wins and a place from his 8 runs over todays CD. Won here last time out , beating the re opposing Reeceltic by a head. And i think he should still be competitive off just 2lb higher. Billy Loughnane is one from one on the horse and hes going through a good spell with a 23% strike rate over the past 21 days, And Lydia Richards sends just this one to the meeting and has a 50% strike rate over the past fortnight. At the prices i think both are worth a go to give the short priced favourite a run for his money.

    12.55 Haydock - Destined To Shine 6/1 (365)
    A couple of horses were on my short list for this race but ive decided to settle on DESTINED TO SHINE who i think can give the main protaganists something to think about ,, Finished last season with a win and came back after a 322 day lay off with a fine effort to come second at Wetherby , hopefully that will have him spot on for this and he'll be raring to go. Horse has run well here before , has placed twice from his three runs over todays CD , and has a win and two places from 5 outings at the course overall. Trainer Kerry Lee has a 33% SR over the past fortnight and the fact that she sends just this one to the course caught my eye considering here recent form. Jockey Patrick Lee has also been in decent form (29% strike rate over the past 3 weeks) and also comes here for just this one and when the pair have pooled their talents over the past three weeks theyve got a 36% strike rate. Horse shouldnt mind the going and i can see a solid showing could be on the cards today.
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2023
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  14. SAMOAN

    SAMOAN Moderator

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    Joined you on the 11.55, but also added REECELTIC, for the forecast / tricast.
    Sean likes this.
  15. Sean

    Sean Active Member

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    512
    Good luck Samoan . Cant say i blame you , Reeceltic def entitled to be there / thereabouts i think
  16. Punter

    Punter Moderator

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    8,523
    I dont have stats but Kerry Lee always does well in January, if memory serves. One of my favourite trainers (as was her dad, Richard). Their horses have done well over the years and the winners often pop up at decent odds.

    Richard Patrick a top Jockey for the yard too. I haven't seen much racing lately but i did see him recover superbly well at Hereford on Monday to get back up and win on Fay Ce Que Voudras. Must of been a contender for ride of the week.
    Sean likes this.
  17. Sean

    Sean Active Member

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    512
    Unfortunatley a non runner , ive always liked the trainer and the jock is good as well and the stats i put up sums up your comment re january .. i dont know about historically but this month they seem to be doing well
    Punter likes this.
  18. Sean

    Sean Active Member

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    512
  19. Sean

    Sean Active Member

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    512
    January - Running Totals

    Happygolucky 10/1 Lost
    Mafia Power 9/1 :thumb 1st 9/2
    Embla 3/1 Lost
    Nacho 11/2 Lost
    Chambard 25/1 Lost
    Sir Ivan 12/1 Lost
    Kaboo 12/1 Lost
    Tyger Bay 4/1 Lost (2nd)
    Progressive 17/2 Lost (2nd)
    Sarceaux 10/1 Lost
    Present Value 11/1 Lost
    Trusty Rusty 5/2 Lost
    Jeans Maite 9/2 Lost
    Raddon Top 9/2 :thumb 1st 3/1
    Wadacre Grace 9/2 Lost (2nd)
    Silky Wilkie 3/1 Lost (2nd)
    Tyger Bay 9/2 Lost (3rd)
    Dance To Paris 9/1 Lost
    Smith 6/1 Lost (3rd)
    Destined To Shine 6/1 Non Runner

    Bets 19 .. Won 2 .. EP -3.50 / SP -9.50
    slick likes this.
  20. Sean

    Sean Active Member

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    512
    Wednesday 25th January

    3.00 Newcastle - Imperial Command 12/1 (365)
    IMPERIAL COMMAND is currently the outsider of the field in this class 4 handicap but im hoping that he can outrun those odds here this afternoon. On the face of it probably does have to step up on what hes been achieving since returning from a lay off , but his last time out 4th to the inform Zealot werent that bad of an effort imo and hopefully he can step up on that here especially as he seems to like it here at Newcastle , over todays CD he has 2 wins and 3 places from 8 runs whilst overall at the course he has 4 wins/3 places from 10 outings. So hes there or thereabouts more often than not and he seems to have a decent draw today. Comes into this on a mark of 80 but has won off as high as 85 before so for me that aids his cause as well. Trainer Mark Loughnane sends just this one to the meeting and is bang in form at the moment , with a 31% strike rate over the past three weeks whilst Billy Loughnane gets the steering job , bit off putting that he's 0 from 4 on the horse , but he too is in flying form at the moment , with a 26% strike rate over the past fortnight. So the fact that he's riding so well at the moment kinda negates that for me. When the trainer and jockey have teamed up over the past three weeks they have a more than respectable 32% strike rate. Theres a few with better claims coming into the race but given the horses liking for the course , and the trainers / jockeys current form im more than happy to take a chance at the current odds.

    8.00 Kempton - Solanna 9/2 - Moonlit Cloud 14/1 (365)
    A couple of runners in this catch my eye , firstly last time out winner SOLANNA , who won by 1/2 length over this evenings CD , looked value for further imo as he werent for catching , gets a 4lb rise for that win but given the manner in which he won that might not be enough to stop him following up here. That was his first run over CD , so 1/1 , and overall he's won three races from five races. Draw doesnt look to bad to me , so that should help in the attempt for the two timer. John Butler sends just this one to the meeting and Rob Hornby in the plate for the first time. Should go well. The other one i like is MOONLIT CLOUD , who was third last time out to the re opposing Cowboy , but im hoping that she can turn that form around here. Like my other selection she looks to have a decent enough berth and i think she can go well at a decent price.
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2023 at 18:11