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Trying Something Out ..

Discussion in 'Horse Racing & Greyhound Tips' started by Sean, Aug 22, 2022.

  1. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    2,251
    Wednesday 23rd August

    2.50 Bath - Confederation 4/1 (365) - Cluedo 11/2 (Coral,Lads)
    Sprint handicap where a few look to hold decent chances , im siding with two against the field who if running to their best should be fighting out the finish , first one is CONFEDERATION who comes into this on the back of a solid run at the course last time out , led from the start and just got done on the line by a neck , dropping to a slightly shorter distance today which i think will be in his favour and play to his strengths and i expect to see him bang there come the line. Has only gone up lb for that last time out run so should be able to manage that , looks to have a decent enough berth and i cant see him being far away. Dylan Cunha has just this one at the meeting this afternoon , and he has a 20% strike rate over the last couple of weeks , whilst jockey Luke Morris is in the plate , two places from his two rides on the horse to date , and hopefully he can get a win out of him today. CLUEDO is the other one that caught my eye , a poor run last time at Doncaster can be forgiven i think as she didnt seem to act on the soft/heavy going. I think she'll be much more at home on todays faster surface and im expecting a better showing here. Before that last time out run she'd won over todays CD and then was third to Estate at Salisbury. Trainer Henry Candy has just this one here today , and you can never ignore his runners at this sort of distance , has a 50% strike rate here at Bath this term , George Rooke in the saddle for the first time and hes not had a winner for a while which admittedly concerns me , but the trainer knows his onions and if he's happy enough with him then so am i , and a losing run has to end sometime doesnt it ? .. hopefully it'll be today !! Should be in the thick of things.
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2023
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  2. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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  3. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,251
    August Totals

    Euchen Glen 25/1 Lost (3rd)
    Tides Of War 33/1 Non Runner
    Spanish Star 22/1 Lost
    Slainte Mhath 11/4 Lost (2nd)
    Iris Dancer 7/1 Lost
    Forza Orta 11/4 Lost (2nd)
    The Wrekin 6/1 [​IMG] 1st 2/1
    Croagh Patrick 10/3 Lost (2nd)
    Nathanael Green 5/1 Lost (3rd)
    Golden Gal 7/2 Lost
    Zoom Star 7/2 Lost
    Doomsday 15/2 Lost (2nd)
    Mayfair Gold 4/1 Lost (2nd)
    Tuddenham Green 12/1 Lost (3rd)
    Ower Starlight 10/1 Lost
    Flower Of Thunder 6/1 Lost
    Queens Company 8/1 :thumb 1st 10/3
    Challet 5/1 Lost (2nd)
    Indiana Be 9/2 Lost
    Woolhampton 13/2 Lost
    Heers Sadie 7/2 Lost
    Arlos Sunshine 9/1 Lost
    Spanish Mane 8/1 Lost
    Optiva Star 10/3 :thumb 1st 10/3
    Jamil 10/1 Lost (3rd)
    Just Hiss 7/1 Lost
    Quercus 5/2 Lost
    Mutannaseq 9/1 :thumb 1st 8/1
    Langholm 7/1 Lost (3rd)
    Enthused 3/1 Lost (2nd)
    Clearance 3/1 :thumb 1st 5/2
    Confederation 4/1 Lost
    Cluedo 11.2 Lost (2nd)

    Bets 32 .. Won 5 ... EP +2.33 / SP -7.84
    slick likes this.
  4. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    2,251
    Friday 25th August

    5.15 York - Modesty 9/1 (Coral,SkyBet,Lads) - Bajan Bandit 8/1 (Coral,SkyBet,Lads)
    Open looking race where the current fave (Enfjaar) could be a good thing but im prepared to take him on with a couple who i think can go well , first one of those is BAJAN BANDIT who arrives on the back of a decent win here at York last time out over 7f when he beat Craven by a length and three quarters , That has been is only run here at York to date so one from one at the course. Had four runs for his current yard and has won two of them , and a third win wouldnt come as a huge shock to be honest. Only thing that i can see is a negative is the fact that he has to carry a 7lb penalty but tbh i think he can handle it. Trainer Grant Tuer has a 14% strike rate over the last two weeks , and does okay when sending his runners here , in the past five years he has a 12.7% strike rate along with a profit of +25.88. Jockey Sam James is here for just this one ride , and when teaming up with the trainer over the last three weeks they have a 13% strike rate. Shouldnt be far away. MODESTY is the other one i like , one from one over CD , which came on his racecourse debut , has run respectably thus far this season , eighth last time (the re opposing English Oak was second) out but im hoping now that he makes his handicap debut better can be expected , looks a reasonable and workable opening mark and i think he can definatley make his presence felt here today. Martyn Meade has just this one here this afternoon , whilst Sean Levey is in the saddle for the first time. Has a 16% strike rate over the last couple of weeks , and has a 25% strike rate when coming here this term along with a profit of +7.00. Shouldnt be far away.

    8.05 Hamilton - Glorious Rio 3/1 (Hills) - Stormy Pearl 6/1 (365)
    Another race where i want two of the runners onside , top weight GLORIOUS RIO is the first of them , was a solid second to the re opposing Wee Fat Mac last time when beaten a short head and im hopeful that he can reverse that form here this evening. One from one over todays CD , and has won off higher than todays mark and if anywhere near his best hes gonna be fighting out the finish imho. Stella Barclay has just this one here this evening , and she has a 27% strike rate in the last fortnight , and she does well here with a 10.4% strike rate over the last five years alongside a whopping +115.66 profit. Jockey Shane Gray has ridden the horse six times to date resulting in two wins and a place , like the trainer does well here , when coming here this season he has a 30.4% strike rate and a healthy +29.00 profit to boot. The other one i think can go well is STORMY PEARL who was a poor 5th of 6 last time out , that race was over 6f , in his penultimate race he beat Impressor by a nose over tonights CD. Has two wins from his outings here at Hamilton and is one from one over CD. Rebecca Menzies has only this one here and shes been amongst the winners of late with a 17% strike rate over the past two weeks , and when sending her runners here over the last five years she has a 17.1% strike rate along with a profit of +9.37 , whilst jockey Owen Lewis is also here for his first ride aboard the horse and takes off a handy 7lb. Has a 25% strike rate in the last three weeks and when he and the trainer have paired up over the same period they have a 100% strike rate. Should be there or thereabouts.
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2023
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  5. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    2,251
  6. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,251
    August Totals

    Euchen Glen 25/1 Lost (3rd)
    Tides Of War 33/1 Non Runner
    Spanish Star 22/1 Lost
    Slainte Mhath 11/4 Lost (2nd)
    Iris Dancer 7/1 Lost
    Forza Orta 11/4 Lost (2nd)
    The Wrekin 6/1 [​IMG] 1st 2/1
    Croagh Patrick 10/3 Lost (2nd)
    Nathanael Green 5/1 Lost (3rd)
    Golden Gal 7/2 Lost
    Zoom Star 7/2 Lost
    Doomsday 15/2 Lost (2nd)
    Mayfair Gold 4/1 Lost (2nd)
    Tuddenham Green 12/1 Lost (3rd)
    Ower Starlight 10/1 Lost
    Flower Of Thunder 6/1 Lost
    Queens Company 8/1 :thumb 1st 10/3
    Challet 5/1 Lost (2nd)
    Indiana Be 9/2 Lost
    Woolhampton 13/2 Lost
    Heers Sadie 7/2 Lost
    Arlos Sunshine 9/1 Lost
    Spanish Mane 8/1 Lost
    Optiva Star 10/3 :thumb 1st 10/3
    Jamil 10/1 Lost (3rd)
    Just Hiss 7/1 Lost
    Quercus 5/2 Lost
    Mutannaseq 9/1 :thumb 1st 8/1
    Langholm 7/1 Lost (3rd)
    Enthused 3/1 Lost (2nd)
    Clearance 3/1 :thumb 1st 5/2
    Confederation 4/1 Lost
    Cluedo 11.2 Lost (2nd)
    Modesty 9/1 Lost
    Bajan Bandit 8/1 Lost (3rd)
    Glorious Rio 3/1 Lost
    Stormy Pearl 6/1 Lost

    Bets 36 .. Won 5 ... EP -1.67 / SP -11.84
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2023
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  7. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    Saturday 26th August

    5.36 Cartmel - Judicial Law 11/2 (365)
    Fancy JUDICIAL LAW in this , has been running well last three outings , winning twice , then third here at Cartmel last time out after a break , that was a decent effort considering it was heavy and he'll appreciate todays going much more and can hopefully regain the winning thread. Has never won here but has the one place from just the one run , one from two over the distance and as i said the going shouldnt be an issue this time as he has won and placed on it. Has never won from a mark this high , but has placed in his sole attempt , last time out so gets in here on the same mark which i think gives him a helluva chance given he now has better ground. Jonjo O'Neill sends just this one to the meeting , and hes been in fine form of late with a 40% strike rate in the last three weeks , has a 24% strike rate when sending his runners here overall so well worth keeping an eye on his entries , Jonjo O'Neill Jr has the ride and hes ridden the horse ten times so far resulting in four wins , including the two wins this term , like JJ senior he has a 40% strike rate over the last three weeks and when the pair have teamed up over the same period they have a 33% strike rate. Cant see him being far away.

    4.10 York - Gale Force Maya 11/1 (Hills) - The Green Man 10/1 (365,Hills,Coral,BFred,Lads)
    This looks wide open with some decent horses who look to hold major chances , i like the look of a couple against the field , first one of those is GALE FORCE MAYA who has done this thread a favour in the past and though she hasnt been at her best so far this term , her best effort to date imo came in her penultimate race when third over this afternoons CD , ran a decent enough race when fourth last time out in a listed race at Pontefract but i think returning to a course where she usually performs well enhances her chances in my eyes. Obviously has a liking for it here at York , only being out of the frame once in six runs over CD , with three wins and two places. Dropping down slightly in class , has been contesting class one races , and when running in class two she usually does well with five wins and five places from thirteen runs , infact shes won the last five class two races shes contested and im hoping she can make it six today and another plus in my book is she is below her last winning mark. Ground shouldnt prove problematic and the draw looks okay so im hoping for a solid effort this afternoon , trainer Michael Dods has just this one at the races here today , and he likes a sprint , so anything he runs in this type of race warrants more than a cursory glance imho. Hasnt been in great form lately it has to be said , but as i said in this sort of race hes one you cant discount , does well coming here to York , this term he has a 14.3% strike rate. Jockey Connor Beasley does well on the mare he has five wins and three places on her from his fourteen rides to date. Has a 13% strike rate over the last fortnight , and when coming here over the last five years has a 17% strike rate along with a healthy profit of +69.25. Cant see her being far away come the line. THE GREEN MAN is another whose won for the thread if i remember rightly , and hes been in good form lately , in the first three in his last five runs - 3,1,1,3,3 and if he turns up in the same sort of form then i honestly give him a major chance. Like my other selection has run well over todays CD , winning once and placing once in his two starts. Hasnt won in a class two before but ran well enough last time when third to the re opposing Aberama Gold in a class 2. Im hoping that he can turn that form around here today. Also hasnt won from a mark this high but in his two runs to date he has come third (last time out and penultimate run) so shouldnt be too much of an issue i dont think. Ground is another thing that shouldnt pose a problem and the draw looks decent enough to me , Joseph Parr has just this one representing him here this afternoon and hes been in good form , has a 22% strike rate over the last two weeks , whilst Kaiya Fraser takes off a handy 5lb , and seems to get on well with the horse having ridden him four times to date resulting in two wins and a place. Definatley looks to be a horse on an upward curve at the moment and a good showing could well be on the cards.

    3.15 Goodwood - Rhoscolyn 5/1 (BFred)
    i really like the chances of RHOSCOLYN who won nicely over this afternoons CD on his penultimate run before coming 16th of 20 last time out , can be forgiven that run though as he was denied a clear run / was squeezed for room , so best to judge him on his last couple of runs before that in which he won and came second , has to be taken seriously here at Goodwood where his record is two wins and two places from seven runs , and that improves to two wins and a place from four runs over todays CD. Has won off higher than today mark , and ground , class and draw all have ticks by their respective boxes as far as im concerned. The fact that David O'Meara has just this one at Goodwood this afternoon caught my eye , as he likes a Saturday winner , and hes done well with his runners here this term with an 18.2% strike rate along with a profit of +11.00. Cieran Fallon gets the ride and he has a place from his three rides on the horse , not a bad jockey on his day and hopefully he can help boot the selection home.
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2023
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  8. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    2,251
  9. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,251
    August Totals

    Euchen Glen 25/1 Lost (3rd)
    Tides Of War 33/1 Non Runner
    Spanish Star 22/1 Lost
    Slainte Mhath 11/4 Lost (2nd)
    Iris Dancer 7/1 Lost
    Forza Orta 11/4 Lost (2nd)
    The Wrekin 6/1 [​IMG] 1st 2/1
    Croagh Patrick 10/3 Lost (2nd)
    Nathanael Green 5/1 Lost (3rd)
    Golden Gal 7/2 Lost
    Zoom Star 7/2 Lost
    Doomsday 15/2 Lost (2nd)
    Mayfair Gold 4/1 Lost (2nd)
    Tuddenham Green 12/1 Lost (3rd)
    Ower Starlight 10/1 Lost
    Flower Of Thunder 6/1 Lost
    Queens Company 8/1 :thumb 1st 10/3
    Challet 5/1 Lost (2nd)
    Indiana Be 9/2 Lost
    Woolhampton 13/2 Lost
    Heers Sadie 7/2 Lost
    Arlos Sunshine 9/1 Lost
    Spanish Mane 8/1 Lost
    Optiva Star 10/3 :thumb 1st 10/3
    Jamil 10/1 Lost (3rd)
    Just Hiss 7/1 Lost
    Quercus 5/2 Lost
    Mutannaseq 9/1 :thumb 1st 8/1
    Langholm 7/1 Lost (3rd)
    Enthused 3/1 Lost (2nd)
    Clearance 3/1 :thumb 1st 5/2
    Confederation 4/1 Lost
    Cluedo 11.2 Lost (2nd)
    Modesty 9/1 Lost
    Bajan Bandit 8/1 Lost (3rd)
    Glorious Rio 3/1 Lost
    Stormy Pearl 6/1 Lost
    Judicial law 11/2 Lost (3rd)
    Gale Force Maya 11/1 Lost
    The Green Man 10/1 Lost
    Rhoscolyn 5/1 :thumb 1st 11/4

    Bets 40.. Won 5 ... EP +0.33 / SP -12.09
    Last edited: Aug 26, 2023
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  10. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    Thursday 31st August

    4.55 Chelmsford - Crazy Spin 8/1 (365)
    I like the look of CRAZY SPIN for this one , doesnt really set the world alight but shes decent on her day i think and im hoping that today is one of those days. Form been in a bit in and out , but does seem to go well here , placed on only start over CD and overall at the course has two wins and four places to her name from 13 runs. Hasnt won at todays trip but has run well at it so not too concerned about that to be honest , draw doesnt look to unkind to me , and the going and class pose no problems either. Hasnt won from a mark this high but has gone well/close from higher so im happy enough that that shouldnt prove a hinderance to her chances here today. I think she can go close especially if allowed an easy lead and on bare form for me she has to stand a solid chance here. Ivan Furtado has two in the race , only runners at the meeting , whilst Dale Swift also here for just this one ride , has ridden the horse six times before resulting in a win and a place. All things considered i think she can go close.

    4.48 Carlisle - Vixey 2/1 (365,Hills,Coral,BFred,Lads) - Northbound 16/1 (365)
    Theres a couple of runners in this one who i think can go well , first of those is current favourite VIXEY whose never been out of the first three home in her career to date , three thirds last year and then after coming back this year after a break shes had two seconds and finally got a well deserved win last time out when she beat Sydneys Son by 3/4 length at Redcar. Given her runs to date that win was well overdue i think and now she has finally got her head in front i think theres a good chance that she can go in again. Placed on her only start over todays CD , shes won and placed twice on her three starts over the distance and the going shouldnt be a problem. Chris Fairhurst sends just this one to the course which caught my eye , has a 20% strike rate over the last three weeks whilst Jason Hart gets the leg up , has placed on his sole ride on the horse and a solid showing looks to be on the cards. At the other end of the market NORTHBOUND stood out to me , been a bit hit and miss this year but ran a fair race after 74 days off last time at Newcastle and i think theres a good chance better can be expected today at a nice price. Was a runner up here over CD on his penultimate run , only start here , so track and trip shouldnt prove to be a problem , and as i say now that hes blew the cobwebs away after that outing last time out i think a better showing could well be on the cards. Going , distance and class all have ticks in the right boxes , trainer Julie Camacho has just this one at the meeting and she knows how to ready one when she wants , stable been a bit quiet lately has to be said but does have an 11% strike rate here overall and a small profit besides. Jockey Ryan Sexton claims a handy 3lb and is also here for just this one , rode the horse for the first time last time out and hes a decent enough jockey on his day. Has a 14% strike rate over the last three weeks , and when coming here this season has a 33.3% strike rate along with a profit of +14.16 , in fact he has a solid strike rate overall at Carlisle , with a 21.4% SR and a healthy profit of +12.16. At the price i think the selection is worth a go.
    Last edited: Aug 30, 2023
  11. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    2,251
  12. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,251
    August Totals

    Euchen Glen 25/1 Lost (3rd)
    Tides Of War 33/1 Non Runner
    Spanish Star 22/1 Lost
    Slainte Mhath 11/4 Lost (2nd)
    Iris Dancer 7/1 Lost
    Forza Orta 11/4 Lost (2nd)
    The Wrekin 6/1 [​IMG] 1st 2/1
    Croagh Patrick 10/3 Lost (2nd)
    Nathanael Green 5/1 Lost (3rd)
    Golden Gal 7/2 Lost
    Zoom Star 7/2 Lost
    Doomsday 15/2 Lost (2nd)
    Mayfair Gold 4/1 Lost (2nd)
    Tuddenham Green 12/1 Lost (3rd)
    Ower Starlight 10/1 Lost
    Flower Of Thunder 6/1 Lost
    Queens Company 8/1 :thumb 1st 10/3
    Challet 5/1 Lost (2nd)
    Indiana Be 9/2 Lost
    Woolhampton 13/2 Lost
    Heers Sadie 7/2 Lost
    Arlos Sunshine 9/1 Lost
    Spanish Mane 8/1 Lost
    Optiva Star 10/3 :thumb 1st 10/3
    Jamil 10/1 Lost (3rd)
    Just Hiss 7/1 Lost
    Quercus 5/2 Lost
    Mutannaseq 9/1 :thumb 1st 8/1
    Langholm 7/1 Lost (3rd)
    Enthused 3/1 Lost (2nd)
    Clearance 3/1 :thumb 1st 5/2
    Confederation 4/1 Lost
    Cluedo 11.2 Lost (2nd)
    Modesty 9/1 Lost
    Bajan Bandit 8/1 Lost (3rd)
    Glorious Rio 3/1 Lost
    Stormy Pearl 6/1 Lost
    Judicial law 11/2 Lost (3rd)
    Gale Force Maya 11/1 Lost
    The Green Man 10/1 Lost
    Rhoscolyn 5/1 :thumb 1st 11/4
    Crazy Spin 8/1 Lost (3rd)
    Vixey 2/1 Lost (2nd)
    Northbound 16/1 Lost

    Bets 43.. Won 6 ... EP -2.67 / SP -15.09
  13. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    2,251
    September .. Bets 16 .. Won 4 .. EP +20.80 / SP +7.25
    October
    ... Bets 18 .. Won 2 .. EP +9.00 / SP -5.50
    November ... Bets 15 .. Won 5 .. EP +26.25 ./ SP +11.08
    December
    .. Bets 27 .. Won 2 .. EP -14.50 / SP -21.20
    January .. Bets 31 .. Won 4 .. EP 0.00 / SP -8.30
    February .. Bets 33 .. Won 5 .. EP +1.83 / SP -8.75
    March .. Bets 61 .. Won 15 .. EP +28.13 / SP +30.33
    April .. Bets 80 .. Won 19 .. EP +23.73 / SP +13.51
    May .. Bets 51 .. Won 13 .. EP +27.30 / SP +12.59
    June .. Bets 55 .. Won 6 .. EP -8.62 / SP -5.77
    July .. Bets 70 .. Won 12 .. EP -6.95 / SP -21.71
    August .. Bets 43 .. Won 6 .. EP -2.67 / SP -15.09

    TOTALS .. Bets 520 .. Won 93 .. EP +104.30 / SP -11.60
    slick and Punter like this.
  14. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    2,251
    Well thats a year up .. happy enough with the profit on the EP (which is what its all about for me) but not happy with the loss at EP , gotta try harder !

    See what the next twelve month brings !
  15. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    2,251
    Friday 1st September

    4.08 Fontwell - Hill Station 12/1 (Hills,Coral,SkyBet,BFred,Lads)
    Probably way of base here but i like the chances of HILL STATION in this one at a decent price. To be honest hasnt shown alot since leaving Gary Moores yard for Dr Richard Newland , but i think hes the kind of trainer who can get the nest out of a horse given a bit of time and i think a good showing could well be on the cards here today. Ran a decent race last time out on the flat at Kempton after a break of 77 days , and i think that he could well strip fitter here and put in a solid effort. Has come down 5lb since last seen in a handicap hurdle and i think that could well tip the balance in his favour. Placed on sole start here at Fontwell. Trainer being going okay with an 18% strike rate over the last fortnight , and has a 20% strike rate here when sending his runners here this season. Jockey Charlie Hammond comes here for just this one ride , and hes going well at the moment as well with a 25% strike rate in the last two weeks. At the price im willing to take a chance that he can come out at the head of proceedings.

    7.30 Wolverhampton - Plumette 15/2 (Hills)
    A few of these look as though they could go well in this but im coming down on the side of top weight PLUMETTE who has a liking for it round here at Wolverhampton. Generally speaking shes been holding her form pretty well , has thrown in a couple of poor performances but has been there or thereabouts of late , yet to win for new trainer Steph Hollinshead but third and fourth in last two races (had three outings for her new trainer to date) and i think coming to Wolverhampton improves her chances of a first win for her new trainer. Five wins and four places from eighteen runs overall at the course , whilst over this evenings CD she has a record of three wins and two places from ten outings. Has won from higher than this mark which caught my eye , and the fact that the trainer has just this one here also stood out for me , 13% strike rate over the last coupla weeks and i like the fact that Cieren Fallon is on board for the first time , been amongst the winners lately with an 18% strike rate , and has a 22.2% strike rate when coming here this term. Should be there come the business end of things.

    9.00 Wolverhampton - Jenny Ren 11/2 (365,Hills,SkyBet)
    Taking a chance with JENNY REN in this , has been off for 125 days so it all depends on whether shes ready to rock n roll first time up but has gone well after a break in the past and she usually runs a sound enough race here at Wolverhampton. Three wins and four places from her 15 outings over tonights CD , and i think if on song she can make it four wins here. The only thing that puts me off slightly is the fact that she hasnt won from a mark this high before but shes gone well enough from this kind of mark to make me think that its within her scope. Sarah Hollinshead has just this one here and she has a 33% strike rate in the past fortnight , whilst Gina Mangan gets the leg up on the horse , and shes ridden the horse five times to date winning twice and placing once. If ready to go i can see her making her presence felt.

    5.10 Salisbury - Inclement Weather 3/1 (365) - Luna Magic 7/2 (365,Hills,BFred)
    I've said it before and i'll say it again ... i should leave amateur races alone ... but i cant , its a compulsion lol .. anyways a couple in this one look as though they could go well to me. First one is INCLEMENT WEATHER who arrives for this in decent form , only been out of the first three once in last six races and she came a solid short head second last time out over this evenings CD (4 1/2 lengths clear of the third) after a break of 137 days , that run should of shaken the ring rust of her and im hoping that she can go one better here. The fact that Alex Hales has just this one at the meeting didnt go un noticed , and Miss Poppy Smith , who is also here for just this one , comes into this in top form with a 100% strike rate over the last month , and has two places from her three rides on the horse. Shouldnt be far away i think. LUNA MAGIC is the other one i rate , fair enough fourth after 51 days off , and i think the same applies to her as it does the other selection , hopefully that initial run out will have her spot on for this. Obviously has a liking for it here at Salisbury , three from three at the course overall and two from two over CD , and im fairly certain she'll be aiming to keep her unbeaten record here intact. Has won off higher than todays mark , and going gets a tick in the right box as does class and draw, Archie Watson going well at the moment , with a 15.7% strike rate over the last four weeks , whilst Brodie Hampson is here for just this one ride and shes enjoying a purple patch at the moment with a 50% strike rate over the last month , knows the horse well having ridden her 28 times resulting in 7 wins and 8 places , she does well when coming here to Salisbury with a 57% strike rate overall and in the past three weeks when the trainer and jockey have teamed up they come away with a 28% strike rate.

    1.50 Thirsk - Parr Fire 13/2 (365)
    PARR FIRE stands out to me in this amateur jockeys handicap , bit hit and miss but ran well after making a slow start last time out when finishing third , that was over this afternoons CD so im hoping a return here could pay dividends as she was going well towards the finish. If she can get away well then i think she should be bang there. Has only won once and that was on her debut back in 2022 , but has run some decent races in defeat and im fairly sure she can go in again , hopefully today. Nigel Tinkler has just this one representing him here today , and he has a 20% strike rate over the past two weeks , and does reasonably well when sending them here. Cant say i know alot about the jockey Jack Callan , if im honest but if hes good enough for the trainer he's good enough for me.

    3.00 Carlisle - Sound Reason 5/1 (365) - Ramon Di Loria 8/1 (Coral,Lads)
    Couple in this one i think can go close and give the favourite something to think about , first one is SOUND REASON who was fourth of six last time out over 6f at Hamilton , but i think dropping back to the minimum will suit him as he seems much better over 5f. Has five wins and four places from nineteen runs at the minimum , and over todays CD hes one from one. Class , going and draw all look okay to me , and has won off higher than todays mark , and i think he can definatley make his presence felt this afternoon. Kevin Ryan has just this one at the course today , and he has a 14% strike rate over the last couple of weeks , and he does well when visiting Carlisle with a 15.6% strike rate. Jockey Shane Gray been amongst the winners with a 10% strike rate in the last two weeks , and like the trainer does okay when coming here with a 15.5% strike rate alongside a very healthy +61.83 profit. The other one i like the chances of is RAMON DI LORIA who hasnt been in bad form lately , last two races came fourth in both which on the face of it were sound enough efforts considering the going was heavy. Back down to his last winning mark which came over todays CD back in May of this year. A win and a place from his two outings over CD , and everything else (class , going , draw) looks good enough to me. Trainer Ewan Whillans sends just this one , having a bit of a lean spell at the moment , but has had a few placers so i think a winners come along sooner rather than later , and when sending his runners here this term hes amassed a decent 16.7% strike rate along with a profit of +9.50. Ryan Sexton in the hot seat , and he gets on well with the horse with three wins and two places from his nine rides aboard the horse , good value for his 3lb claim i think , and been doing well lately with a 14% strike rate over the last three weeks and when riding here this season he has a 33.3% strike rate and a profit of +14.16. Should be in the mix.
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2023
  16. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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  17. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    Running Total - September

    Bets 8
    Won
    EP -8.00
    SP -8.00
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2023
  18. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    2,251
    Saturday 2nd September

    5.20 Sandown - Spring Bloom 8/1 (365,Coral,Lads) - Safari Dream 10/1 (365)
    Theres a couple in this class 4 handicap that catch my eye , first one is top weight SPRING BLOOM who comes into this in fine fettle , going close the last twice , penultimate run over 6f at Newmarket he went down by 1/2 length in fourth followed that up last time out with a head second to Good Earth , that was over todays CD , and if in the same sort of mood then i can see him going very close here. Hasnt won here as yet but does seem to go well having placed in all three starts over CD. Catches my eye that hes coming down in class here , wont mind the going and the draw doesnt look to bad imho. Hasnt won from a mark this high in three attempts , but given his recent form im not too bothered about that. Trainer Robert Eddery isnt a trainer i really follow and he is having a bit of a lean spell at the moment if im being honest , but has got a decent enough 14% strike rate overall here at Sandown and the fact he relies on just this one here today could point to a decent run being on the cards. Richard Kingscote in the plate and he has a 12% strike rate in the past two weeks , and has one place from one ride to date on the horse , here back in 2021 when he was second. Does well when coming to Sandown with a 15.4% strike rate overall along with a profit of +18.40. SAFARI DREAM is my other selection , started the season well enough with two thirds but then could only manage tenth of twenty one at York last time out , was equipped with first time cheekpieces for that run and they've been left off today so hopefully he can show himself in a better light. Never run a bad race round here , with two wins and a place from three wins , all over this afternoons CD , has won twice and placed twice from five outings in the class and the going shouldnt be a problem. Hasnt won off this mark before but has placed so hopefully that wont be an issue either. Rod Millman sends just this one to the meeting and hes a trainer i rate , knows the time of day and how to ready one , has a 13% strike rate over the past couple of weeks and has a 20.4% strike rate when coming to Sandown overall. One of the main things that caught my eye is the fact that Oisin Murphy is booked to ride for the first time , so to me that means they mean business , has a 16% strike rate in the last three weeks and when coming here to ride boasts an 18.7% strike rate. Shouldnt be far away.

    5.35 Beverley - Dandys Angel 5/1 (Coral,BFred,Lads)
    DANDYS ANGEL done this thread a favour in July andim hoping that history repeats itself today , comes into this bang in form , in her last nine races she has only been out of the first three once - 3,1,3,2,1,1,4,1,3 and i can see no reason why she shouldnt go well again here today , especially as she seems to like it here at Beverley with a record of four wins and four places from twelve runs over CD. Trainer has just this one here and hes been in good form over the last 3 weeks with a 29% strike rate , and has a 27.3% strike rate when sending his runners here this season along with a tidy profit of +11.75. Jockey Brandon Wilkie takes off a handy 3lb and i think hes a decent jockey , definatley value for his claim , has ridden the horse 8 times with the end result being a win and three places , heres hoping thats its gonna be four wins from nine tomorrow.

    8.15 Chelmsford - Finery 7/2 (Hills)
    A few look as though they could take this seven runner handicap but im siding with last time out winner FINERY (who i shortlisted and mentioned but didnt back last month and she duly went in !) , who beat Nasim by a length and a half over tonights CD. The re opposing Last Hoorah was a further nose back in third and im hopeful that the selection has the measure of that one and can beat him again. She loves it here at Chelmsford with four wins and two places from six runs at the course (four wins and a place from five over CD) , does have a 4lb rise to contend with jockey claims 5lb so hopefully thats not gonna be too much of an issue. Jockey Erika Parkinson here for just this one , and she has seven wins and four places on the horse from her 20 rides and when coming here this season she has a 50% strike rate. Trainer Michael Appleby has a 17.4% strike rate here this term and when he and the jockey have partnered in the last three weeks they have a 50% strike rate. Cant see her being far away.

    1.50 Sandown - Tough Enough 4/1 (Hills,Coral,SkyBet,BFred,Lads)
    I'm liking the look of TOUGH ENOUGH for this , won over CD last time beating Street Kid by half a length , that was a decent run and given hes only had six runs to date i'd expect that theres further improvement in him. That win made it two from three this term , and to me everything looks right for a good run. Rossa Ryan has been in good form of late with a 22% strike rate over the last three weeks , and has ridden the horse on five of his six starts (the one he didnt ride in was the one where the horse was unplaced for the first and only time thus far in his career) , so two from two this season and i think theres every chance they make it three from three this afternoon. Done well when coming to Sandown this term with a 26.1% strike rate along with a profit of +14.62. Did catch my eye that trainer James Tate sends just this one to the meeting , he has a 23% strike rate in the past three weeks and he has a 33.3% strike rate here at Sandown this term.

    5.27 Newton Abbot - Good Impression 10/1 (365,Hills,Coral,BFred,Lads) - Karanelle 7/1 (365,Coral,BFred,Lads)
    Open looking handicap hurdle where i like the look of a couple against the field , GOOD IMPRESSION is the first one , was a decent third at Uttoxeter last time , and gets in here off the same mark which to my way of thinking means he has to have a good chance here today. Has a win and a place from his two runs over CD , and ground , class , and mark all look good to me and im expecting a solid effort here. Trainer has a pair entered into this one and theyre his only runners on the card , been a bit quiet of late but does well when he sends them here with a 17.1% strike rate and a profit of +31.00 so anything he sends has to be considered imho. Jockey Ben Jones gets on well with the horse and hes here for just this one ride , four wins and two places from his six rides to date. KARANELLE is the other fancy , had been in decent enough from until last time out when she unseated her rider , that could of been a case of the race coming too soon as her last race was just two days prior to that one , like the other selection does well here at Newton Abbot with a CD record of a win and 4 places from 5 outings , was a sound third over CD on her penultimate run and she races of the same mark here today. One thing that caught my eye is that this is her second run after having wind surgery. The inform Sean Bowen in the hot seat and he has an 18% strike rate over the last 2 weeks , and has 2 wins and 5 places from his 17 rides on the horse. Trainer David Rees has only this one here and he has a 17.5% strike rate when sending them here. If on form i cant see her being far away come the business end.
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2023
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  19. slick

    slick Administrator

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    Superb write up once more Sean, Good luck m8:crossfingers
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  20. Sean

    Sean Well-Known Member

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    Cheers Slim , could do with a winner or two gotta say !
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