World T20 Cricket

Hi Dave, long time no see and hope you and yours are doing well.

Australia favourite ffs, who'd have thought that 12 months ago, In which country are these matches being played?

I'll go for India or Sri Lanka then because those pitches are like playing on a different planet to what we are normally used to, Pakistan have been out of the frame for a long time and I'll be very surprised to see them turn it around and win the comp, I wouldn't be surprised though to see them finishing above the Aussies in group 2.
I'm no cricketing expert mind but have been told plenty of times in the past by some of my asian workmates and they are usually right about the importance of the pitches in that part of the world.

Good to see Afghanistan in the mix, my first thoughts were Steve and British Imperialism but I wouldn't be surprised to see them being a mix of of mainly Pakistani and the odd Afghan player because the relationship of both countries has always been close.
On paper they may look a joke of a team but don't be shocked to see them throw up a few surprises.

I wouldn't rule afghanistan out of this opening game at all. Lots of pressure on bangladesh & Afghanistan have made enormous strides in the last few years

I've been looking at this today as well. First thought is that surely the qualification stages can't count in total runs? An Afghani could have 9 games as a runner up to an Aussie's 6 as winner? Can't see it anywhere though.

My overall bet I'm tempted with Pakistan @ 8/1. There's no way I'd be backing Australia on the sub-continent @ 3/1, that's just ridiculous & an over-reaction to the 'Aussies are back' brigade. They're in the harder group & it's quite possible they won't even get out of it! I mean West Indies & Australia, in Asia, with India & Pakistan in the same group. Lunacy.
Strict home advantage is irrelevant as Bangladesh won't win it, meaning the temptation is to go for Sri Lanka, India or Pakistan. The IPL does mean a lot more players are used to playing in these conditions, & that can't be discounted, but I'm not sure that India's bowling is as good as the other two's, although their batting is strong. For me it's a toss up between Sri Lanka & Pakistan, but I always feel impact cricketers can take the day in T20 & Pakistan have a lot of slow options & distance hitters. For that very reason West Indies can't be discounted but I'd want bigger, but Australia can be.

Regarding the runs, my working out is simple. If you assume that Bangladesh are the strongest qualifier & are going in the harder group, then it's a weaker qualifier going in the other one. That means that 3 of the 4 weakest bowling attacks in the competition after the group stages are in one group with NZ, England & that qualifier. I don't doubt that NZ can take an attack apart but it's the potential for them to go airborne I'm thinking of, & England only really have Morgan who looks to have the game on slow turners, but I like the idea of Corey Anderson but I don't think NZ will get far enough.
Therefore, with the chances of teeing off against 3 weaker attacks rather than a harder other group, for me it has to be a South African or a Sri Lankan, & being in bangladesh there's only one choice there. I like De Cock but he hasn't played much IPL which is important grounding for this. De Villiers, will he get enough crease time? For me it has to be Sangakkara or Dilshan, & I'm swaying big towards Dilshan @ 25/1.
Of the other short runners, far too short if you ask me, Gayles always got a shout & although he prefers pace he's happy enough facing spin, but will the WI's get far enough? 12's is short when he might well only play 4 games. Kohli is the leader of a number of Indians who could go well but I would much rather be on a far more certain qualifier from the other group. No brainer for me.
I wouldn't back an Aussie anyway as I'm not at all sure they'll qualify but Finch would be my preference. he hits straighter than Warner & will be less unsettled by facing slow straight up

They must do mate, for it not to be mentioned. If Bangladesh were going into Englands group their batters would be worth a look on that proviso. Think afridi looks decent