X FACTOR Betting

the risk... i bet there's a few gay men who'd like to push their stool's in for them

well... it was mostly pretty awful...i didn't learn much but the risk look like finalists now

After watching tonight's programme and considering the judges comments, I have a inkling that The Risk are the producer's 'plan-A'. They were 6.5 during tonight's show and have now halved in value.

I find JD boring and she just doesn't grab my attention at all. Very basic and bland. There's a lot they could've done with her arrangement, but they left it underdeveloped so it would drone on and on. That's why I think JD is very low on the producer's list with Misha B and The Risk well ahead.

As for bottom two bets for tomorrow... I'm tempted, I really am! There's great value on Craig Colton even though Frankie was woeful. That said, 5.0 for Frankie who barely sang a note in tune is also decent value. I reckon I'll be going for Craig Colton if anyone, even though I'm not in the mood for the fight. Perhaps a £5 of destiny to liven up a Sunday night

edit: although, thinking back, Sophie Hababababa was pretty bad too. She could be a shock entry into the bottom two.

there were so many rubbish performances tonight i'm not sure about anything anymore. ithink there are certain acts at this stage who can't come bottom, and Gav you are speculating on them which has me worried. but i'm not sure CC, SH or FC can fall into the bottom 2 at this stage. in the 'surprise' category i'd think more likely sami brookes (went second with and awful rendition of whitney houston) or marcus collins, with nothing in tune whatsoever, otherwise i'm happy with my nuvibe/johnny robinson bet.

Pretty similar thoughts to me Gav. It dawned on me not long after the Risk finished that they are plan A - whether they were in the first place or not, who knows, but they certainly are now.

I actually thought they were quite poor tonight - one of them was hopeless, but it didnt matter, the judges were ready with the ramps, and as with OD the backing music was turned up a notch during the chorus.

The problem for the competition is that they dont have the problems OD had - Cowell was always seen to be favouring his own act, whereas this year the setup is actually perfect - boyband royalty in Gary Barlow giving them his seal of approval each week. It's just as orchestrated as Cowell was, but wont come across that way.

If any one of the others gets their act together then they should still be able to beat a group no matter how well ramped, but at the moment I cant make a case for the others who one by one committed X Factor suicide tonight. Mischa was ok, but her voteability long term is pretty poor. Craig and Janet dont really seem to have anywhere to go, Sophie sounded like she had been sedated beforehand tonight, Marcus continues to fail to deliver despite there being a reasonable voice in there somewhere.

And Nu Vibe look more than sunk to me tomorrow night, even at solid odds on. There is zero interest in them amongst the public, zero investment in them from the producers, they were on during Strictly, and the sooner they can be ditched the better. Bottom 2 = gone imo - cant imagine who they would survive against.

Twitter stats from fll on the betfair forum - they were a pretty good indication of a large part of the voting demographic last year.


1. The Risk 123
2. Misha 71
3. Marcus 43
4. Rhythmix 40
5. Sophie 36
6. Janet 22
7. Kitty 21
8. Frankie 13
9. Craig 8
10. Johnny 6
11. Sami 4
12 Nu Vibe 2

Response
Percent

Marcus Collins​

​

4.4%​

Craig Colton​

​

5.6%​

Frankie Cocozza​

​

0.9%​

Nu Vibe​

​

0.5%​

Rhythmix​

​

9.7%​

The Risk​

​

16.4%​

Kitty Brucknell​

​

10.7%​

Johnny Robinson​

​

2.4%​

Samantha Brookes​

​

4.6%​

Janet Devlin​

​

17.9%​

Misha Bryan​

​

16.3%​

Sophie Habibis​

​

10.7%​

This is the current poll on digital spy. Frankie very low, but this is a very loaded question, " who sung the best last night?"

Had it been, "who will you vote for," I could see Frankie coming much higher.

My money is on Craig to be in the bottom two, and at 21.0 it's excellent value. My brain is shouting Sami though. We'll see

i've been reading digitalspy for a while now and can report they hate FC there and have since day 1 - so i'm not so sure they are a good barometer of how people will vote, given that FC has very large twitter and facebook following. he's one i'd like to see go and wouldn't mind too much losing my bet in the process... just to see the look on his face

Twitter has been very quiet for Frankie since last night. It was an awful song choice in terms of appealing to his current fanbase.

Well they're pretty stuck for choice with Frankie. Perhaps they've realised his limitations far outweigh his positive attributes and have just decided to just leave him drifting to an inevitable exit. In terms of suitable song choices, he'd be singing The Streets or Jamie T every week.

If you think about it, Frankie's demographic is competing with The Risk, who are now considered as plan A. It makes sense that he's now surplus to requirement and can go bugger off, get another few names tattooed on his ass and perhaps chatch gonorrhea while he's at it.

So where's everyone's money tonight?

Have a few small plays on Nu Vibe going, nothing special. Tough to see them being anywhere other than bottom, and they are gone against everyone...Johnny perhaps they only guy they could feasibly survive against.

For the sake of predictions I'll go with........Rythmix filling out the bottom 2.

You're not the only one to say that! There was a stats website that suggested them. Something to do with positive and negative twitter/you tube comments I think. Interesting.

They are undoubtedly better, and more interesting than almost every girl band so far....but the fact remains that groups have such hard work to do in the first 2-3 weeks to make a sufficient connection with the audience to get enough votes.

Who knows - with 12 acts vying for votes I can imagine they are spread very thinly across 5-6 acts at the bottom, in which case the diff between bottom two and just safe could be determined by something as minor as how prominent they are early on tonight (im not watching btw.) So there could be clues in the early editing tonight if the producers want to boost one or two who are in danger...

No Machiavellian maneuverings tonight then, just a predictable thank you and goodbye to a very poor Nu Vibe.

Yep, very little to take from that. Nice bet Rob!

Was Frankie bottom of the pv? Not sure - going to deadlock would have avoided anyone getting miffed at the judges saving the awful Frankie, so perhaps Nu Vibe beat him. But NV were just as crap so it's hard to say.

yes nuvibe obvious in the end but must say even though he gave a ghastly performance i was still shocked to see FC in the bottom two. he should be ok next week with a sympathy bounce and no doubt a better running order.

still in deficit atm due to nv also being one of my crap antepost choices based on their judges house performance which made them look like the premier boy band.

- 0.3 pts