ODM's Pretty Young Things

Musdam won at 6/1 so this is a good time to update the P&L figures (assume there's a smiley here cos the bloody thing's not working for me again).

Ringside Humour ran a good race to finish 2nd place as well.

Profit up to £84.85 so far.

Two for tomorrow:

245 Nottingham, Geno 2nd fav at 9/2. The fucking about with the headgear is not encouraging but my tracker notes tell me that it battled to just be beaten last time and urges me to follow it - so I will

325 Lingfield 11/2 3rd fav against what the market is telling us is a strongly fancied horse called Cryptic, Toriano is currently 11/2 with Skybet.

Two £10 wins unless Toriano is 6/1 or more in the half hour before the race in which case I'll back it ew instead.

I've been known to go ew on as low as 3/1 mate if the circumstances are right. For years and years I was a slave to the "logic" that each way was only any good at 4/1 and over for 1/4 odds races and 5/1 and over for 1/5 races. Something else I did was only back ew on races with 8 horses or more but often (depending upon the prices of the horses in the field) the better bet can be to aim for two places at 1/4 odds. It's a judgement call.

What changed my thinking was when I watched a bloke talking about short priced e/ws (not sure if it was on one of the racing channels or online) and what he said made sense to me. If I look at a six horse race and come to the conclusion that there is only one danger to my 3/1 horse, I can either risk my tenner and lose it if the danger horse wins or I can chuck another tenner in and back it each way knowing that I'll get £17.50 of my £20 stake back if I come second. You're gonna lose some £20s but you're also going to drag some place money over the longer term.

It doesn't suit everyone but in the area that I concentrate on, my horses will often be 3/1, 7/2 up against a short-priced fav. Don't get me wrong, in a field of newcomers when you don't know what you're up against there's a chance that I'm going to find 3 or 4 better than mine so I'd usually go for the straight win.

I have no written rules but I've got to the stage where I can pick up a racecard (or, more accurately, look at an oddschecker page) and know straight away if there's a bet there for me without looking at any form or race conditions or anything. Then I'll look into the race further. I like to stick to races with 11 runners or less if I can - the more horses, the more scope for surprises

The other "counter-intuitive" thing I've learned to do is to ignore drifting prices and back the fuckers anyway.

None of which is relevant to this particular thread

Just to explain why I mentioned a possible ew bet instead of a win.....if the race was due to go off in ten minutes, I'd be on a straight win bet at 11/2. The problem with posting the night before is that, by the time the race comes around, this fav could be 1/2 and my donkey could be 10/1. If that was the case and my horse came second at 10/1 I'd be gutted not to have made a profit on it.

Conversely, the fav might drift to 2/1 and mine go in to 4/1, in which case I'd be happy to be on the win bet. Best odds guaranteed usually means that you don't have to wait around to see if a price drifts or not but in rare cases, such as this, the potential off price would determine whether I backed win or ew.

Just to add to the above re' ew bets. 90+ % of the time, you will get a better price for two places on a race with 7 runners or less on Betfair than you will backing straight ew with a bookie. That's worth bearing in mind (especially for short priced ew bets). Thinks like that can make a difference to your profit and loss figures at the end of a season.

I've somehow missed Banish which runs in the 220 race at Lingfield (named in this thread on 28th April and finished second (twice in two runs). Difficult race to have any confidence in but this I'll be on it anyway. Currently 5/2

Banish in to 2-1 this morning so if ur backing it get on early

Thanks mate. Busy at the moment but will mention my horse for tomorrow while it's still available at 5/2.

310 Ayr Hakam. Previously beaten by Murad khan which went on to win for me in this thread. As I said, 5/2 still available but probably not for long

No chance Slick, they're fucked. I need a goal to get a bet up so I won't cry too much if Hull score. Can't see it tho - the game is petering out now

They're a bunch of cunts. Same story every fucking season. I suppose at least you can't accuse them of not giving their fans an interest at the end of the season.

Tomorrow 4 oclock Goodwood Skiffle. 3rd on debut in a well bred field after being slow away. 3/1 second fav tomorrow.


Archive -one from 2014 Russian Realm 220 Goodwood 6.1. Field is too big for me to risk a bet tomorrow though.

One bet, one winner. Just the 5/1

Thanks Gents but no need to get carried away. This is supposed to be a slow burner generating a decent profit over the summer months. I can assure you that the 4/1 and 5/1 winners that I've had so far will be a rarity.



I'm going to give Merry Banter another go in the 640 at Catterick and then watch the race afterwards to see whether it's worth keeping in the tracker or not. Will be interesting to see what the change in ground brings. Each way bet at 12/1

One from 2015 The Happy Prince 605 Cork. £5 ew at 4/1, 6 runners



Going to include this one even though it's a 7 year old now. For three reasons, one, it's one of those horses that I've always seemed to drop lucky and been on it when it's won. Two, I have a soft spot for the trainer. Three, it was on a career high rating at the end of last year and won a race about this time last year at around the same mark it runs on tomorrow. And finally, it's entered in a big race at Ascot next month and may be worth watching for signs of whether it might be backable then or not. Rywaiyan 435 Goodwood. Currently 5/1 but I see they are scrubbing a runner at the moment so that may change. In any event, I'll back the win with the bookies and put the place on with Betfair for two places tomorrow.

Had to save that as my comp just started telling me that shockwave flash had crashed and froze on me. Anybody know what that shit means? I'm on Chrome if that's relevant.